Hurricane Milton Starts Wednesday At Cat 5 Landfall Track South Of Tampa After Midnight

Wednesday Morning, October 9 2024

We start the day with this report from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT: Winds were 160 mph, making this a Category 5 Hurricane. The eye remains sturdy, but we do expect weakening during the day. Regardless of the winds at landfall, the water pushed onshore will carry the wave memory of this peak intensity. The rainfall will expand and maybe exceed forecasts.

I want to focus on the track’s shift southward. I began showing this yesterday afternoon, and the modeling continued overnight. The newest storm surge maps plot a slightly better set-up for Tampa Bay but worse for Siesta Key, Venice, and southward.

In this report: Satellite Loops, Landfall Maps, Local Storm Surge Plots, Live Radar, New Model Maps, and Warnings.

Infrared Satellite at 8 PM EDT

The eye was 300 miles from Tampa.

Moving Northeast at 14 mph…. It will travel faster as it gets closer.

Milton has been a tightly compact storm, but it will double in size (or more) as it eventually weakens and approaches land later today.

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 8 PM EDT

• LOCATION…24.5N 85.4W
• ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
• ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…907 MB…26.78 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

The National Hurricane Center track has plotted landfall about 50 miles south of where it was expected earlier yesterday. The timing is expected after midnight.

Tropical Storm Force Winds may be felt on the coast this morning.

Closer Look

Hyper Local Looks With Surge Heights Below

IR Satellite Loop

LIVE RADAR Widget

EXPECTATIONS

Wind Damage

Hurricane Force Winds: Extend 30 miles from the center Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 125 miles from the center.

THIS WILL EXPAND FARTHER AS THE THE STORM GETS WEAKER AND CLOSER TO LAND.

Hurricane force winds may carry with the storm all the way to the Atlantic Coast.

Tornadoes are common with landfalling tropical cyclones. This can be hundreds of miles from the center in outer bands and will include much of the State of Florida.

Flooding

Saltwater flooding is Storm Surge. 6” of water can move a person. 12” of water can move an SUV or Truck. The forecast is 10 to 15 Ft in the worst areas.  This will push well inland.

Freshwater flooding is caused by rainfall, which may be up to 3 inches per hour. The forecast has a total of 9 to 12” or higher in the path and north of the eye track. Some of these areas are already 2 feet (24”) above rainfall for the year and have been very wet for the last two weeks.

Track Shifting South

The National Hurricane Center track has plotted about 50 miles south of where the landfall was expected earlier yesterday. The timing is expected after midnight.

Tropical Storm Force Winds: May be felt on the coast by later this morning.

Landfall MAY BE Near Venice

Southwest Florida

Peak Storm Surge Forecasts

Areas just north of the eye wall may get an initial surge, then water could drain OUT OF Tampa Bay as the eye passes:

• Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL…10-15 ft
• Tampa Bay…10-15 ft
• Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL…9-13 ft
• Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…8-12 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…8-12 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…5-8 ft
• Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL…4-7 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
• Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
• Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC…2-4 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 ft
• Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
• St. Johns River…2-4 ft

HAFS  Model Animation: Wed Morning to Fri Morning

This has been doing a good job leading the pack with the track adjustment.

Landfall Forecast

GFS Model Landfall Forecast

GFS Model Animation: Wed Morning To Fri Morning

Wind Forecast

This is a low end conservative estimation.

Rainfall Forecast

The Freshwater Flooding is likely 9 to 12 inches+ along and just north of the path.

Models have a tough time with tropical rain bands and often results end up higher.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
• Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
• Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
• North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
• Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

• North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
2. Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
8. Helene September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
10. Kirk September 29 to  ; Cat 4 Hurricane : Ocean with 145 mph winds
11. Leslie October 2 to ; Cat 1 Hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March Click to see more and send a request for your school.

ALSO SEE

Equinox NOT Equal Daylight… Yet

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF