Category 5 Hurricane Milton wind 175 mph: Biggest Storm Surge Forecast On Record For Tampa

Monday Afternoon October 7 2024

This is one of the fastest developing systems on record. Explosive is the most appropriate way to describe what happened today. Hurricane Milton was Category 2 at 5 AM, then rapidly developed to Category 5 before noon.

The latest peak wind speed has been measured at 175mph with gusts over 180 mph. Less than 1% of storms reach this intensity.

The rapid drop of air pressure went from 972mb at 5 AM to 911 mb at 2 PM is an unmatched drop of 61 mb in 9 hours.  This is EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT!

In this report I will show a few different satellite loops with the forecast maps and updated warnings.

Infrared Satellite at 2 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 2 PM EDT 1PM CDT

• LOCATION…21.7N 91.3W
• ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
• ABOUT 700 MI…1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…175 MPH…280 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…911 MB…26.90 INCHES

IR Satellite Loop

The speed of the circulation and symmetry is astounding. It demonstrates a well-defined structure and healthy storm.

Visible Satellite Close Up

Here we can see a well defined but small eye wall. Hurricane Force Winds only reach 30 miles from the center.

Visible Satellite Loop

Florida Evacuations

If you are in contact with friends and family I STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVACUATING TO A SHELTER if in an evacuation zone.

Storm Surge

This may be the most destructive part of the storm.

Peak Storm Surge Forecasts

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
• Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
• Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft

• The precise track of the eye at landfill may shift who gets hit the worst.
• The stronger side of the storm is RIGHT OF CENTER at landfall.
• This will be on the South Side in this case.
• Farther on the North side of the eye will have dramatically lower water.

A few things to highlight before getting to the latest stats, maps, and warnings:

SIZE OF HIGHEST IMPACT:

The storm will send rain bands out hundreds of miles, however the winds described are really close to the center.

Hurricane Force Winds (over 74 mph) Extend 30 miles from the center

Tropical Storm Force Winds (over 39 mph) Extend 80 miles from the center.

Storm Surge: Expected Devastation

This is the first time on record there has been a forecast for 8 to 12 Ft storm surge for the Tampa Bay Area. This area was flooded on the outer edge of Hurricane Helene 10 days ago, and has not recovered.

Landfall AFTER Peak Intensity: WAVE MEMORY

Milton may remain as a Category 5 for another day, then is expected to weaken as it approaches land. This is deceptive. The storm will carry the WAVE MEMORY of the top wind speed for 24 to 48 hours. This is the sloshing of the waves that holds the energy longer.

These storms are known for massive storm surge flooding:

Katrina peaked at Cat 5 = 175 mph and hit as a Cat 3

Isabel peaked at Cat 5 = 165 mph, dropped to a Cat 2 for two days before landfall.

Eastern US Surface Map

This is NOT going to turn north. A large, cool, and strong air mass is blocking any north movement. The air flow aloft is helping to steer Milton to the East into Florida.

UPDATE National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Compare this to Model maps below.

Wind Arrival Time (for Tropical Storm Intensity)

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

* Campeche to south of Celestun

* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Rio Lagartos to Cancun

* Campeche to south of Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee

* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

Computer Model  Forecast Intensity

Many models have caught on to the Cat 5 lasting for a day, then weakening to a Cat 3 by landfall.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Windy Widget

HAFS Model: Landfall

This suggests the track very close to Tampa after midnight into early Thursday morning.

HAFS Model Track Animation

Rainfall Potential

The path may bring up to 12 inches of rain across central Florida, with a sharp cut off to the north. This subject to change with any fluctuation in the track.

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
2. Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
8. Helen September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
10. Kirk September 29 to  ; Cat 4 Hurricane : Ocean with 145 mph winds
11. Leslie October 2 to ; Cat 1 Hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF