November 24 Brief Warm Up Ahead Of More Rain And Thanksgiving Winter Storm
November 24, 2024 Sunday Morning Report We will have a few days with mild temps leading up to rain on Tuesday. This will be followed by a larger storm on…
Milton Now A Major Hurricane Ahead Of Schedule: Category 3 With 125 mph Winds
storm surge
Flooding
National Hurricane Center
Tropics
Warnings
Monday, October 7 2024
The National Hurricane Center has indicated that Hurricane Milton is at Category 3. This is a Major Hurricane AHEAD OF FORECAST SCHEDULE!
An interim report at 7 AM EDT noted that Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data found the pressure had fallen to 954mb with winds of 120 mph. It got stronger in the current full report an hour later.
The forecast for a Category 4 is very likely, but now Category 5 is looking within reach.
SIZE OF HIGHEST IMPACT:
Hurricane Force Winds extend 35 miles from the center
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend 80 miles from the center.
IR Satellite at 8 AM EDT
An eye is clearing out in the center, which is a signal of a healthy storm structure that will enhance further strengthening.
The highest clouds are shown in white and pink colors.
The interesting feature of a second cluster off to the Northeast of the center (upper right). If this gets wrapped into the center, we will have rapid development supporting Category 4 or possibly 5 in the next 24 hours.
SUMMARY OF 8 AM EDT/ 7 AM EDT/700 AM CDT
- LOCATION…21.8N 92.2W
- ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
- ABOUT 745 MI…1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES
Satellite Loop
UPDATED National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone
This is still very close to Tampa Bay. A slight adjustment north or south will have a big impact on the worst storm surge and strongest winds.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
- Celestun to Rio Lagartos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
- Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
- Campeche to south of Celestun
- Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay
- Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
- Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the
- Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Rio Lagartos to Cancun
- Campeche to south of Celestun
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
- Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass
- Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay
Peak Storm Surge Forecasts
The precise track of the eye at landfall may shift who gets hit the worst.
The stronger side of the storm is RIGHT OF CENTER at Landfall. This will be on the South Side in this case.
Farther on the North side of the eye will have dramatically lower water.
Storm Surge Potential
- Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
- Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
- Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
- Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
- Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
- Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
State of Emergency:
Gov DeSantis has issued a State of Emergency for 35 counties across Central and South Florida.
Computer Model Forecast Intensity
The previous model run did have some members reaching Category 5. I expect an upward tick with the full morning package, given the current 8 AM update.
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
Windy Widget
ECMWF Model Animation: Tuesday To Thursday
Tracking quickly across Central Florida and then out into the open Atlantic.
Snapshot Tuesday Night
This looks like it may make landfall just south of Tampa.. but still too soon to pin down.
Snapshot Wednesday Morning
This may exit into the Atlantic, remaining a Category 1 Hurricane.
Rainfall Potential
The path may bring up to 12 inches of rain across Central Florida, with a sharp cut-off to the north. This is subject to change with any fluctuation in the track.
REASON FOR MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND NOT UP NORTH:
Jet Stream Forecast Monday To Friday
Snapshot Thursday Morning
Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:
Named Storms
- Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Beryl June 28 11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
- Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
- Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
- Helen September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
- Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
- Kirk September 29 to; Cat 4 Hurricane: Ocean with 145 mph winds
- Leslie October 2 to; Cat 1 Hurricane
- Milton October 5 to
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SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
