October 7 Hurricane Milton Winds 100 mph A Cat 2: Cooler Air Into East Coast Helps Steer It Eastward

Monday October 7, 2024

Morning Report

The National Hurricane Center posted an upgrade for Hurricane Milton to Category 2 this morning Winds are up to 100 mph as it strengthens and continues to head towards Florida.

Hurricane Milton UPDATE AT 8 AM

Category 3 with 125 mph winds.

Click here or the image for the UPDATED REPORT

SIZE OF HIGHEST IMPACT:

• Hurricane Force Winds Extend 35 miles from the center
• Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend 80 miles from the center.

OLDER MORNING REPORT:

National Hurricane Center Update 5 AM EDT Mon Oct 7

• LOCATION…22.1N 92.6W
• ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
• ABOUT 750 MI…1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES

There is a contrast of very different weather in the Eastern US, and both are connected. Overnight, a cold front passed through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, bringing showers and thunderstorms. This was the leading edge of a large and strong air mass.

Autumn chill with dry weather will last all week, possibly bringing the first frost inland by Friday morning.

The upper-level winds in the Jet Stream are also pushing farther south and helping to direct Hurricane Milton’s path across Florida and then out into the Atlantic. This report provides details on both.

Morning Surface Weather

The Cooler Pattern dominates the Great Lakes and is reaching the East Coast this morning. It will enhance a dry pattern for the week ahead.

The tropical air mass holds across the Southeast US. Hurricane Milton will ride ‘under’ the cold front and get a push to the East as it approaches Florida.

Jet Stream Forecast Monday To Friday

The upper-level winds pushing colder air to the East Coast will also help direct Hurricane Milton across Florida.

Snapshot Thursday Morning

See the full Hurricane Milton Forecast BELOW

Local Weather Briefing:

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 7

Sunrise at 7:09 AM

Sunset at 6:39 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  50ºF

Record 35ºF in 1964; 1991; 2001

Normal High in Baltimore: 72ºF

Record 96ºF 1941

TUESDAY OCTOBER 8

Brief Overview: Remaining Dry and Trending Colder

Morning Low

Afternoon High

HURRICANE MILTON

Satellite Loop

The storm is getting better organized as seen with the evidence of an eye clearing out in the center AND a wide expansion of higher cloud tops (white and pink colors).

Forecast Intensity

There is more agreement that this may reach Category 4 intensity tomorrow, then weaken back to Category 3 by landfall. Some slightly cooler water was stirred up from Helene that Milton will run over.

It will still be a Major Hurricane when it makes landfall later Wednesday and will carry the wave height from the peak intensity.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

The collection of plots near Tampa continues. There will be some fluctuation, but will remain within 100 miles.

National Hurricane Center Track and Timing

I adjusted the times to reflect Eastern Daylight Time

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from  Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee

* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

Close Up From CERA

The shift to the south for landfall is still within the margin of error, and it can adjust more within a 100-mile range.

It is important to note that there will be much more destruction on the right side, the strong side, at landfall, and much less on the left, the weaker side… which in this case is on the north.

That is why Tampa appears to be in better shape now, but Sarasota to Punta Gorda looks worse (the same area was hit hard by Hurricane Ian).

Forecast Storm Surge Heights

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
• Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
• Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft

ECMWF Model

Tracking quickly across Central Florida and then out into the open Atlantic.

Snapshot Tuesday Night

This looks like it may land just south of Tampa.. but still too early to pin down.

Snapshot Wednesday Morning

This may exit into the Atlantic, remaining a Category 1 Hurricane.

Animation: Tuesday To Thursday

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

This looks like a flooding event for Central and South Florida, with 6 to 10 inches of rain over the next week.

Local 7-Day Forecast

A very quiet week locally in central Maryland. The trend for cooler temps will also bring in the chance for the first local frost for the inland suburbs by Friday morning. At this point, next weekend looks like another warm-up and remaining dry.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF