Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Earlier today, Helene was upgraded to a hurricane, and now the expected strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico will take place ahead of landfall. At Category 1, the top sustained winds are 80 mph, within 25 miles of the center. This is a large storm, however, with tropical storm winds reaching 275 miles from the center. That makes it over 500 miles wide. There are outer rain bands in Florida that can be considered to make this even larger!
Helene is expected to reach Category 3 or higher, making it a Major Hurricane with winds over 110 mph. The number at this point is academic as it will bring destruction to a large area as this has a big footprint.
The storm is expected to grow rapidly when entering the warm waters (86ºF to 89ºF ) of the Gulf of Mexico. Flooding from heavy rain (up to 10 inches) and high storm surge (up to 18 Ft in some areas) is expected near the center of the path, in addition to wind damage from the storm itself AND squalls with tornadoes inland.
One important factor is that this may make landfall while still intensifying. That makes it much more destructive than a stronger storm weakening. It’s like a team with a poor record, barely making the playoffs but ending the regular season on a hot streak. That is the team to watch in the post season. Here, a growing storm will have an impact farther inland because of the spin aloft, even though the lack of water will weaken it.
This report has the latest maps and forecasts from Wednesday morning. Also, New Watches and Warnings.
Also, see the interactive Windy Widget below.
Hurricane Helene is located near Cancun, with some rain bands already reaching Florida.
The cold front in the Southern Appalachians already has strong thunderstorms in place. These two systems will interact to enhance the flooding potential well inland.
Updated Wednesday Afternoon
Many models have it at Category 3 strength by landfall on Thursday: Winds 110 mph or higher.
Updated Wednesday Afternoon.
This is before the worst of the system and when the impacts and potential damage begins.
At this time, the wind forecast is suggested to be over 100 knots or 115 mph. That would be Category 3.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
Forecast Track/Cone/Timing: National Hurricane Center
WINDY Interactive Widget
Use the button to scroll to when this storm takes form near Cancun and enters the Gulf of Mexico.
A deep trough in the Jet Stream (seen here at 18,000 Ft) is expected to pinch off the closed Low. This larger circulation will capture and pull the smaller circulation of Helen. The storm speeds up forward motion.
The track will move North and THEN Northwest into the Ohio Valley.
While heavy rain bands may reach the coastal Carolinas, the main storm will make the turn in Georgia farther inland.
The animation shows that this may get absorbed as the energy diminishes to a tropical depression.
The peak intensity of the hurricane, while over water, is expected to make landfall Thursday night.
The latest suggestion is that Helene will still be pulled well inland across the Ohio River Valley. After getting absorbed into the Upper-Level Low, it will swing east and bring another round of steady rain to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Named Storms
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
