September 24 Cool And Damp Today Plus Helene Expected To Get Named And Hit FL As A Major Hurricane

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Morning Report

In the Mid-Atlantic, we are stuck in a wet weather pattern. Drizzle is widespread and not showing up well on radar. More steady rain is expected to arrive in the afternoon and evening, so fields will be wet for after-school sports. There will be heavier thunderstorms in the mountains.

We remain wet into tomorrow.

Live Radar Widget

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Helene NAMED

Updated maps, watches data, and full forecast

Click here or this image

Coastal Flooding

The higher water continues with the Easterly Winds raising water with each high tide.

Annapolis High Tides:

10:39 AM; 11:53 PM

Cambridge High Tides:

9:27 A,; 10:41 PM

Tropical Activity:

Helene is expected to be named today. It will pass between Cancun and Cuba, then rapidly develop in the Gulf of Mexico. When it makes landfall in Florida on Thursday, it is expected to become a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher.

Tropical Satellite

Winds are 35 mph and still not fully organized. When winds reach over 39 and more storms wrap around the center, it will get named Helene. That is expected today. See the forecast track below.

Morning Surface Weather

Much of the Eastern US is under the influence of low clouds, drizzle, and showers. The steadier rain and thunderstorms will be more active in the mountains and try to spread east later today.

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 8 PM

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

Evening Rain

Heavier rain with thunderstorms will be crossing the mountains.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 24

Sunrise at 6:57 AM

Sunset at 7:0- PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  56ºF

Record 39ºF in 1963; 1974; 1983

Normal High in Baltimore: 77ºF

Record 95ºF 1970; 2010

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24

Radar Forecast 6 AM to 8 PM

More rain and some heavier cells for the early commute.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Tropical Update

The system that is expected to be named Tropical Storm Helene today is located in the Northwest Caribbean. It will pass between Cancun, Mexico, and Cuba.

Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, water temperatures range from 86ºF to 89Fº. This will lead to rapid development, which is why it is expected to jump to a Major Hurricane by Thursday and then make landfall near the Big Bend of Florida.

NHC UPDATE

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

• LOCATION…18.9N 83.0W
• ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
• ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

Florida Watches

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass, Florida, southward to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.

Forecast Intensity

This is expected to be pulled in by a large Upper-Level Low and forced to turn inland to the Northwest.

This is called the Fujiwhara Effect and why the East Coast of the US will miss the worst.

HWRF Model Forecast Animation

Wednesday To Saturday

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

LOOKING AHEAD

ECMWF Model Forecast Animation

Thursday Through Saturday

The turn inland wrapping around the Upper-Level Low can be seen here. A band of tropical rain will cross the Mid-Atlantic, but not the core storm.

Thursday Night

The most agreeable suggestion for landfall maybe Thursday.

Friday Night

If this works out, the remnant Low of that tropical system may end up North of Nashville and missing the Mid-Atlantic.

There may still be feeder bands of tropical rain into the Carolinas.

Saturday

This may be located in Indiana as a Tropical Depression and could get absorbed by the Upper-Level Low.

7 Day Forecast

One warmer day near 80ºF on Thursday, then we need to pay close attention to some tropical rain showers that may arrive Friday into Saturday.

Reminder: The storm has not formed yet, so there may still be more adjustments to its track and our outlook next weekend.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF