September 23 Cooler With Periods Of Rain And Possible Tropical Storm May Skip Us Later This Week

Monday September 23, 2024

Morning Report

This first full day of fall will start to feel like it. There is a damp feel to the air fed by both directions. Rain will arrive from the West and a cooler, damp wind from the East.

Drizzle will be expanding this morning to periods of rain that will last into the afternoon.

Temps will cool down more tomorrow, and the rest of the week will be subject to two major features:

A new tropical storm is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico and may turn into a strong hurricane before making landfall near Florida’s panhandle. The track is not certain until there is a defined Low-Pressure Center. That has not happened yet.

High Pressure in New England may keep us cool AND may block the Mid-Atlantic from this storm…. Meanwhile, bands of tropical rain could still reach the Carolinas.

More on this and the full morning Tropical Outlook below.

Live Radar Widget

Morning Surface Weather

We are getting the squeeze play between a nearly stalled frontal boundary in the Ohio Valley and High-Pressure in Eastern Canada.

The rain will arrive from the west, while the cooler winds will push from the East.

The drizzle this morning will expand to periods of rain midday and this afternoon, sooner than I suggested yesterday. It may affect afternoon plans and after-school sports.

The Coastal Flooding continues as a result of high water being pushed up the Chesapeake Bay from that offshore system.

Coastal Flood Warning

Central Chesapeake Bay and especially Annapolis continue to be subjected to flooding with high tides.

Annapolis High Tides:

• Monday: 9:39 AM; 10:49 PM
• Tuesday: 10:39 AM; 11:53 PM
• Wednesday: 11:44 AM

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 8 PM

Afternoon Snapshot

Drizzle will expand to periods of rain. Plan for a wet day.

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 23

Sunrise at 6:56 AM

Sunset at 7:01 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  56ºF

Record 40ºF in 1904; 1983

Normal High in Baltimore: 77ºF

Record 98ºF 1970

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 24

Morning Temperatures

Rain Forecast 6 AM to 8 PM

The steady airflow FROM THE EAST will keep a cool and damp feel to the air.

Drizzle and light showers continue. The steadier rain will arrive later in the day across the mountains and may reach metro areas overnight.

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

LOOKING AHEAD

ECMWF Model Forecast Animation

Wednesday Through Saturday

This model did not do well last week, but it has led the charge with the developing tropical system. There is a lot of uncertainty about whether and where a new tropical storm may form and then track. This model is now mimicked by most global and tropical models.

Thursday Afternoon

The most agreeable suggestion for landfall may be Thursday afternoon near Pensacola and Tallahassee Florida.

Friday Afternoon

If this works out, the remnant Low of that tropical system may end up North of Nashville and missing the Mid-Atlantic.

There may still be feeder bands of tropical rain into the Carolinas.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The National Hurricane Center 7-Day Outlook

This has increased to 90%, with a 70% chance of a named storm in the Gulf by Wednesday.

Storm Tracks

The European ECMWF Model I showed yesterday has led the charge, and now most models agree: This may track North into the Ohio Valley and miss the East Coast.

Click here or the images for the complete morning tropical report

7 Day Forecast

There are some changes to what the week looked like yesterday:

Rain and cooler earlier in the week, but the rainy end ‘might’ not happen. This is all dependent on the potential tropical storm/hurricane.

Reminder: That storm has not formed yet, so there may still be more adjustments to the track and our outlook next weekend.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF