August 31 NOAA Severe Risk Back West Then Additional Thunderstorms Overnight And Clearing Labor Day

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Morning Report

The cloudy and damp start should give way to more summer-like heat and humidity this afternoon. How warm it gets will depend on how much sun breaks out. The other issue will be any thunderstorms.

At this time, the cold front appears to be moving slower. That is why the risk of severe weather has been held back farther west in the mountains. That is better for metro areas. There may be a spotty shower, but the better chance for thunderstorms in metro areas will be after dark and overnight.

Sunday holds a chance for showers, and then that new Canadian ‘cooler’ Air Mass will arrive on Labor Day with sunshine. The pre-Fall chill will be felt most of next week.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

The Level 2 Risk has been pushed back west of the metro areas due to slower timing of the cold front. There will still be some thunderstorms overnight… but the potential damage may be confined to the mountains where they arrive with the heat of the day and evening.

Radar Simulation

SUGGESTION Noon to 8 PM

The signal for strong to severe storms will be in the mountains with the location of the front and heating of the day.

Morning Surface Weather

In many areas east of the mountains, we start this day with the marine layer, which has low clouds and some fog. This will burn off as the warm and humid portion of this complex builds in.

The front with the focus on storms is the slow mover that has adjusted the timing for our weather event this weekend.

LIVE RADAR AND LIGHTNING WIDGET

Snapshot Suggestion at 4 PM

The best ‘suggestion’ for where the storms will set up this afternoon.

Temperatures

How warm depends on how much sunshine we get. While the main storm line will be farther west, some spotty thundershowers may develop with any excessive heating.

TONIGHT

The line of thunderstorms may fade during the evening and resurge overnight. Metro areas could get thundershowers after midnight, but the severe risk will be reduced. Some showers may linger into sunrise as well.

Radar Simulation 8 PM Sat to 8 AM Sun

Snapshots

1 AM

3 AM

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY August 31

Sunrise at 6:35 AM

Sunset at 7:38 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  64ºF

Record 49ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 102ºF 1953

Summer Hot Day Totals At BWI

8 Days at or above 100ºF

41 Days total at or above 90ºF 

Here is the breakdown of daily high temps in Baltimore so far this August

• 100s = 2
• 90s = 7
• 80s = 17
• 70s = 4

Comparing historic August heat waves that have NOT been challenged for more than half a century.

1968 August Record Heat Wave

• 23rd = 98ºF
• 24th = 98ºF
• 25th = 97ºF

1948 August Record Heat Wave

• 26th = 101ºF
• 27th = 102ºF
• 28th = 101ºF

1953 August Record Heat Wave

• 29th = 100ºF
• 30th = 101ºF
• 31st = 102ºF

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 1

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Radar Simulation 8 AM to Midnight

Afternoon at 2 PM

Midnight

PATTERN CHANGE

GFS Model Forecast Sunday through Wednesday

Labor Day Monday

Clearing and improving weather.

Wednesday

This air mass will bring a few chilly mornings and then sunshine with warm afternoons.

NOAA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The trend for the Eastern half of the nation will be COOLER than average.

7 Day Forecast

The storms will be determined by the amount of sun AND the location of the slow-moving front.

Labor Day looks good!

Next week: Clearing and sustained cooler temps.

Four Supermoons In A Row

See more about the 4 Supermoons Through November here:

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF