Soggy Saturday Update: Rain Timeline Through Preakness In Baltimore

Friday, May 17, 2024

As we approach another weekend, we have yet another weather system bringing us rain. This will make 16 of 20 weekends this year with some wet weather in the Mid-Atlantic. This one falls with the eyes of the horse racing world on Baltimore. With the rain, temperatures in the afternoon maybe 15 to 20 degrees cooler than average.  Here is a quick look at the setup, Live Radar Widget, and Forecast Maps through Saturday.

Friday Afternoon Surface Weather

This is not an organized surface Low but rather a weakness in the atmosphere with a quasi-stationary front. 

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation: 4 PM Friday to 6 AM Saturday

The initial wave of rain may fade while crossing the mountains. The second surge will be the main event arriving Saturday morning.

EVENING: 8 PM Snapshot HRRR Model 

That band of rain may reach the front ridge but is expected to fade as it pushes east. Light showers or drizzle may occur in metro Baltimore tonight, but the main rain will hold off until morning.

MORNING: 6 AM Saturday HRRR Model

The leading edge of rain will be falling over the mountains and entering metro areas. 

Morning Temperatures

These may be the warmest temps of the day just before the rain begins. 

6 AM Saturday NAM 3 Km Model

This model is a little faster and brings the rain into metro areas shortly after sunrise.

8 AM Saturday NAM 3 Km Model

The morning will turn soggy across central Maryland and surrounding regions into PA and Southward.

Radar Simulation: 8 AM to 6 PM Saturday 

4 PM Snapshot: NAM 3 Km Model

Temperatures 

This supports the drop and hold into the 50s through the afternoon. The average High in Baltimore for May 18 is 76ºF.

6PM Snapshot: NAM 3 Km Model

Preakness Weather

Light rain will still be around close to race time.

Rain Total POTENTIAL

Weather Trend

Storm Simulation: Saturday To Monday

• Saturday: A soggy and chilly Preakness.
• Sunday: The latest trend has been holding:  The system suppressing rain to our south. I am expecting a mostly dry day, and starting to warm up.
• Monday: High Pressure and a change in our weather pattern will bring more sun and a warm up!!!!

Snapshot Sunday

The trend has been holding: Improved weather, with any chance of showers suppressed in Southern Virginia. At best, we get breaks in the clouds with some sun…

7 Day Forecast

• Another weekend with rain, but not both days.
• Soggy Preakness, Then Better Sunday.
• Next week we get back to more sun and a warm up!!!!

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF