May 11 Aurora Viewing Forecast Weather And More Photos

Saturday, May 11, 2024

The display of the Northern Lights last night was historic. As the name implies, this is more common in the northern latitudes. On rare occasions, we can get them in view across the Mid-Atlantic region. But there were vivid displays of the Aurora all the way down as far south as Florida and Texas in the US.

Are you hoping to see it again locally or go on a road trip? Well, tonight’s event will not be as strong, so if you are hoping for a viewing or are planning a road trip, I have the needed information below. This includes forecasts and a live satellite widget.

If you head towards Big Meadows or along Skyline Drive, plan to get there around 11 PM or later for a better chance of clearing AND any aurora.

A planetary K index (Kp) of 8 or higher is usually what we need in the Mid-Atlantic for a sky show. Last night was Kp= 9.  

As of this afternoon, it was holding at a lower Kp= 7.

Suggested Viewing From NOAA

With the forecast expected to remain near Kp=7, this has the marginal line into the Mid-Atlantic and Central US. This is not as far south as yesterday. The best chance will be farther north (and where the skies are clear). But there is a chance… especially in the mountains away from city lights.

Weather Forecast Below

Some Photos From Friday Night

The sky cleared late near coastal areas…

Millsboro, DE from Kyle Brochet

Colors Explained

Preston, MD from Kelsey Nara

Cape St. Claire, MD from Emily Clancy

More Regional Photos Below

Weather Forecast

A weather system is bringing a band of rain and perhaps some thunder overnight. This is a metro and coastal issue tonight. 

Farther west will clear sooner. 

Radar Simulation: HRRR Model 8 PM Sat to 6 AM Sun

Snapshot at Midnight 

Live Radar Interactive Widget

Cloud Forecast: HRRR Model 8 PM Sat to 6 AM Sun

Driving suggestion:

If you head towards Big Meadows or along Skyline Drive, plan to get there around 11 PM or later for a better chance of clearing AND any aurora.

Snapshots

Midnight

3 AM

If you want to drive, you should be OK in the Shenandoah of Virginia. Western Maryland and Western PA may see bands of clouds at times through early morning. 

Live Interactive Satellite Cloud Widget

More Area Aurora Video and Photos 

Timelapse Video in Shenandoah

@TonyPannWBAL @JustinWeather @MatthewCappucci @wbaltv11 @ttasselWBAL @forecaster25

Amazing Timelapse I took of the Auroras at Shenandoah National Park

Truly breathtaking pic.twitter.com/cBTz3RnNxc

— 9sami98 (@9sami98) May 11, 2024

Elm City, NC from Mike Willard

Southwest PA from Susan Ingrassia

Mentor, OH from Matthew James

South Florida 

How This Happens

To view an Aurora event two things are needed: A Solar Storm’s Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that reaches Earth.

The intensity of the CME will relate to many factors that interact with the protective ionosphere high above our atmosphere. The charged particles get pushed towards the North and South Poles, where they can illuminate. A more intense event can expand farther south. Tonight’s forecast below will describe how this will be measured. 

If you check my Facebook post there are even more photos in the comments.

Mother’s Day Weather

Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

More Rain?

The better chance for showers to develop is mid-day into the afternoon, with a few thunderstorms mixed in.

Radar Simulation: 8 AM to 8 PM

2 PM Snapshot

40% Chance Of Showers Or T’Storms developing during BRUNCH into the afternoon.

Looking Ahead

Storm Simulation: Tuesday to Thursday

After a sunny Monday, the next storm system may bring a two-day event with more rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast

Note:

Next week will warm up back to the 70s.

The best chance for rain will be on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF