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Tracking Showers Or Storms Wednesday Afternoon And Overnight

Storm Forecast

Justin Berk

Jul 28, 2021

2:59 pm

Wednesday July 28 2021

With the heat of the day, some showers have begun to pop up as expected. But here is my dilemma, and perhaps similar to yours. I am heading out to meet a few friends for a long training ride on our bikes. They last thing I want is for us to get caught under a shower or storm.

Here is a quick look at the radar simulation and live radar widget below to compare.

This is the type of day with isolated showers that can develop and fade at anytime. Check out the radar between 1:30 and 2:30 PM. Here we can see a shower in Carroll County develop, and then fade away in a hurry. Meanwhile, down the line a new cell popped up just south of Baltimore near Severna Park.

July_28_weather_radar_Wednesday_afternoon

Storm Outlook

We have a Marginal Risk for any cell to turn severe. I think the main risk is for sporadic lightning in any of the cells that develop.

Radar Simulation

The NAM 3 Km Model did plot a cell in Carroll County, but at 5 PM. It is hard to tell if this was just a few hours late to the party, or picking out the next cluster of showers.

Late Afternoon

I have indicated the movement of the cells, from the Northwest tracking Southeast.

Tonight

The influence that will pump in more humidity for one more day, is also what will help shift the storm track tonight.

We could very well have more activity overnight in metro areas, then pivot up to northeastern Maryland.

Animation 5 PM to 7 AM

Here we can see the shift in motion overnight. If your lawn or garden needs a drink, there is hope midnight to daybreak tomorrow.

There is also a chance you hear thunder after 2 PM.

July_28_weather_rain_radar_forecast

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Thursday Storms: Higher Risk And More Active

Looking Ahead

Much more comfortable with cooler weather by Friday and this weekend.

There is a small chance for afternoon showers on Sunday, but I would not change your plans.

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