Sunday, January 11, 2026
Lots of things to focus on in this report. The rainfall lived up to expectations with many areas getting near or above one inch in the last two days. This next phase will be the colder winds and a return to feeling like winter again.
With the push of cold winds, a few clusters of heavy showers may contain bursts of snow or ice pellets mixed with rain. These squalls are likely to pass early in the afternoon.
More impactful will be the weather in the mountains, where A Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory have been issued. So be careful traveling across Western Maryland and West Virginia to Western PA.
Looking Ahead: That snow potential for Thursday Night to Friday Morning has more support; however, I am still not seeing a major storm. The European Model is looking more organized, while the GFS is less (as expected). I see a blend between the two as our most likely outcome.
See it all below.
Washington’s top airports both surpassed 1” and set new daily records. Baltimore was just under 1”.
WESTERN MARYLAND
This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!
For Baltimore and the Mid-Atlantic: Windy conditions today as the cold front pushes through. Watch for snow squalls this afternoon! A line of snow squalls is moving from the Great Lakes toward our region and could bring a brief burst of snow with gusty winds and reduced visibility.
Winds will get stronger during the afternoon and evening.
This model can sometimes be 1 to 2 hours slower than what we end up seeing:
Yesterday: Low 44°F; High 51°F
Precipitation: 0.90″
Season Snow Total: 2.0″
Snow Depth: 0″
Top Wind Gust: 21 mph
Sunrise at 7:26 AM
Sunset at 5:04 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record Low: 1ºF in 1982
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record High: 73ºF in 1975
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Back to the cold.
This is the more reliable European Model, and it is looking a little more organized with Low Pressure in the Mid-Atlantic developing snow.
Timing is Thursday Night to Friday Morning.
You may have seen the GFS model from other weather people. That is why I am addressing it here and doubling down on low confidence. This model appears faster and less organized than the prior run.
I believe there will be more adjustments AND the most likely solution will be a BLEND between the two we see here.
Yes, I see some snow accumulation, but I would NOT call this a major storm!
Let’s Start Higher…
At this 250 mph level, 30,000+ Ft aloft, the orientation of fastest winds is too far East. This carries the system farther East and does not allow the system to fully blossom and stay nearby.
This is why I see it not becoming a major event at this time.
The main element to watch here will be the jet stream.
At this 500mb level, we see the Upper Low and Negatively Tilted Trough. But there is no support above this level to allow it to take hold close to the coast.
This 5-day window will bring a few chances for snow. This is NOT the only option ahead. Just the focus at this time.
Winter is coming back!
Thursday into Friday looks like an interesting system with rain changing to snow, and Friday morning snow looks promising, but I still would NOT call this a major storm!
Faith In The Flakes!
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In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
These are NOT all the same caterpillar!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
