Wednesday December 3 2025
Morning Report
This morning starts off cold and dry, but after the heaviest rainfall in months, it could be a little icy. Widespread temps in the 20s to lower 30s could have resulted in some wet areas last night to freeze.
Today will be dry and as well as tomorrow. Th next snow event will arrive Friday. This will be a quick moving event with a narrow band of steady snow for a few hours. The impact is not a lock yet, but where it does snow it will be cold enough to stick.
What follows will be multiple reinforcing shots of arctic air. The coldest with a lobe of the stretched Polar Vortex is expected by the end of next week.
I posted this on Facebook last night, as it was the best place to get a simple grading and collective feedback. If you explore closer, my first call was the best. I believe I my message about the warm ground was received, but I made some mistakes that accounted for the slush and snow zone shifting about 20 miles farther north and west.
Most of the event yesterday was rain, as expected. The total of 0.84” in Baltimore was single wettest day sine August 13.
I am including this Facebook post as well just in case you missed it and want to read the comments.
High Pressure is moving into the Eastern US, which will provide us with a sunny day and keep us dry through tomorrow.
The next area of developing snow will be across the Southern Plains and head to the coast on Friday.
Yesterday: Low 27F; High 40F
Precipitation: 0.84”
Top Wind Gust 25 mph
Sunrise at 7:09AM
Sunset at 4:44 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 32ºF
Record 11ºF in 1976
Normal High in Baltimore: 51ºF
Record 72ºF 1998
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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This is a flat or zonal flow. This means that whatever forms will not be strong and will be moving quickly.
This is like shooting an arrow and a narrow area will get the impact.
Convergence: The focus on the faster winds will be where the light band of snow will form underneath. This will track south of Maryland… but how close is the debate.
I have been showing the ECMWF Model and this is the plot that brings the narrow band of steady snow in to Central Maryland.
While this has a history of being the most reliable, it was too cold with our recent event. It was also too far south, which adds another question for this track.
This is the middle track, and farther south. This product does perform at its best in arctic patterns.
This model is still less reliable. For the last event it started too strong and too cold. However, it did catch on and do a better job closer to the event.
More cold air will be flowing into the Eastern US.
We can see the Polar Vortex send a lobe of truly arctic air in to the Eastern US Next Week. The second impulse will be the strongest!
Very cold air arrives, but more intense cold with the Polar Vortex will drop our way late in the week.
The core of the cold air may result in some records.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
