Saturday, November 29, 2025
Morning Report
The cold air is now fully in place, and we are monitoring two weather systems over the next four days.
The first is a larger storm dropping heavy snow across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. This will affect Chicago and may impact flights for people heading home in other areas.
The second system will be stronger and track closer to our area, arriving on Tuesday right along the boundary of colder air. This setup is classic: snow inland and rain closer to the coast, with the changeover line running near the I-95 corridor. As of now, a brief slushy mix is possible for the cities, but roads should remain mainly wet since surface temperatures will be just above freezing. Farther inland, however, the colder suburbs are more likely to see accumulating snow—especially if the system arrives early enough to take advantage of the morning cold.
This 8 AM map already has the result of an hour of sun.
The first storm is located in Nebraska. Moderate to heavy snow is falling to the north and affecting St.Louis to Chicago. Some parts of Iowa can expect over 1 foot of snow!
This system will track to our North on Sunday. It may bring an early mix, then light rain during the day. The next storm will form behind it. Maps below explore that potential.
Yesterday: Low 31F; High 42F
Precipitation: 0.00”
Top Wind Gust 46 mph
Sunrise at 7:05 AM
Sunset at 4:45 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 33ºF
Record 13ºF in 1955
Normal High in Baltimore: 53ºF
Record 74ºF 1927
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Flurries and snow showers across the mountains of Western Maryland to Central Pennsylvania.
Some snow showers may cross Hagerstown and Frederick to parts of Central Maryland before noon. Then a transition to rain is expected for most areas in the afternoon.
A chilly rain is expected along I-95 to the coast, which may slow travelers heading home.
I am showing the GFS Model against my better judgment, but to illustrate a point. This is the more robust of solutions, AND SHOWS AN EARLY arrival of snow and slush before sunrise.
Timing will be key to getting any potential snow in metro areas!
BUT THE COLD CAN’T HOLD
We are missing a blocking High Pressure to the North. So the storm itself will generate warmer air and pull it northward. This is why most urban areas along I-95 to the coast can expect rain.
Inland areas will be the transition. Elevation and location will determine how long the cold may hold. Our inland suburbs may start with snow and some accumulation.
Snow falling during the day will land on surface temperatures above freezing. That is a formula for melting or slush on the grass.
If snow falls with temps above freezing, it is likely to melt or may hold on the grass.
This model has tapped into the stronger pull north, turning any early mix to rain for most of our metro area. A moderate to heavy snow (from this solution) for Central Pennsylvania to New England.
That pink shading is normally reserved for an icy mix. In this case, I see wet snow with ground temperatures above freezing.
This model is later with the arrival and also tracks farther south, so it keeps the snow falling over the inland suburbs most of the day.
Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning
This brings the precipitation later for metro Baltimore and tracks farther south. It allows the suburbs to hang with the snow longer… but we still have the issue of surface temperatures above freezing.
I DO NOT buy into computer model snow forecasts, as I see the complication of snow falling and melting. So that will limit totals.
My call accounts for the typical early-season influence of lower elevation and warmer water to keep most city areas wet to the coast.
Inland areas will be colder, and elevation may allow for pockets of higher totals.
Today: Sunny and Cold
Sunday: Chilly Rain May Begin As Wintry Mix INLAND
Tuesday: Slushy Mix; Mostly Rain South, Some Minor Accumulation Inland
Wednesday and Thursday: Dry
Friday: Flurries with the next push of cold air
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
