Saturday, November 29, Outlook For Tuesday, December 2, 2025

We are now within the 72-hour period for the prime event for the Mid Atlantic, which is within my comfort zone to make my first call for snowfall. This will be the second weather system, following the first one arriving tomorrow (Sunday).

I understand some question calling this a storm, but in essence, it will be even if your area does not see the worst conditions.

With winter events, the most attention is often given to snowfall and totals. This early-season event has a few obstacles for the Mid-Atlantic that I want to emphasize.

NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK

I do see snow arriving in the morning, but the setup does not support holding that cold. It will also include the influence of WARMING from the water near the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic. This is why I-95 is often the division line along the big cities from Washington, Baltimore, through Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.

Inland areas can and will be colder to allow more snow potential because of higher elevation and being farther away from the water.

Tuesday Morning Set Up

I am showing the GFS Model against my better judgment, but to illustrate a point. This is the more robust of solutions AND SHOWS AN EARLY arrival of snow and slush before sunrise.

Timing will be key to getting any potential snow into metro areas!

THE COLD CAN’T HOLD

• We are missing a blocking High-Pressure to the North. So the storm itself will generate warmer air and pull it northward. This is why most urban areas along I-95 to the coast can expect rain.
• Inland areas will be the transition. Elevation and location will determine how long the cold air holds.
• Inland suburbs may start with snow and some accumulation.
• Snow falling during the day will eventually land on surface temperatures above freezing. That is a formula for melting or slush on the grass.

Jet Stream: 500mb Heights

This shows the energy aloft with a Trough Axis that is positively tilted and well inland to our West. This allows the Surface Low to Track North and pull warmer air up at cloud level.

Jet Stream: 500mb Height Anomaly

This helps show the contrast to average conditions and highlights the core of the cold air across the Great Lakes. This would need to be closer to the Surface Low to allow for stacking the cold air in a deeper column, allowing more snow with the developing Low.

Surface Temperature Forecast

National Blend Of Models

If snow falls with temperatures above freezing, it’s likely to melt or may still hold on the grass.

Morning

Afternoon

Evening

Model Comparisons

Snapshots for Morning, Afternoon, and Evening:

The European is later and farther south… but all are now in on the warming for more of our metro area.

Timing will be key to getting early snow if this arrives before sunrise.

But during the day I see snow falling with temps too warm for stickage, even a change to rain.

GFS Model

This is faster with the arrival, so an initial slushy snow then goes to rain. This could be a concern just up to sunrise and for the early commuters.

Canadian GEM Model

That pink shading is normally reserved for an icy mix. In this case, I see wet snow with ground temps above freezing.

ECMWF Model

This is later with the arrival and also tracks farther south, so it keeps the snow falling over the inland suburbs most of the day.

Storm Animation Comparisons

GFS Model Monday Night to Wednesday Morning

ECMWF Model Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning

This is later and tracks a little farther south. That would allow colder air to hang a little south as well. We would still contend with the marginal surface temps and areas with snow falling, but melting.

Snowfall Potential: Ensemble Odds of 1”+

These are the colder ECWMF Model odds made from 51 different scenarios.

This does account for operational model error AND also does NOT account for melting.

NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK!

Compare The Model Snow Forecasts to My Call Below

ECMWF Model

Canadian GEM Model

GFS Model

If you saw this model from other weather outlets, here is the reason I often do not use it!  This is most aggressive with snow totals and has now swung the other way to account for warming and perhaps underplaying some inland snow potential.

My First Call For Snowfall Tuesday

I DO NOT buy into computer model snow forecasts, as I see the complication of snow falling and melting. So that will limit totals.

My call accounts for the typical early-season influence of lower elevation and warmer water to keep most city areas wet to the coast.

Inland areas will be colder, and elevation may allow for pockets of higher totals.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

Faith in the Flakes Store Open

My Winter Outlook For Above-Average Snow

Click here for the full report

La Niña Advisory

This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.

In Case You Missed It

Woolly Bear Caterpillar Winter Folklore

These are NOT all the same caterpillar!

Winter Outlook From 2 Farmers’ Almanacs

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 Completed Sat August 9

UPDATED: We raised OVER $166,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF