Saturday November 29 Outlook For Tuesday December 2

We are now within the 72 hour period for the prime event for the Mid Atlantic, which is my comfort zone to make my first call for snowfall. This will be the second weather system, following the first one to arrive tomorrow (Sunday).

I understand some question calling this a storm, but it all essence it will be even if your area does not see the worst conditions.

With winter events, the most attention is often given to snowfall and totals. This early season event has a few obstacles for the Mid Atlantic that I want to emphasize.

NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK

I do see snow arriving in the morning, but the set up does not support holding that cold.  It also will include the influence of WARMING from the water near The Chesapeake Bay and The Atlantic. This is why I-95 is often the division line along the Big Cities from Washington, Baltimore, through Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.

Inland areas can and will be colder to allow more snow potential because of higher elevation and farther away from the water.

Tuesday Morning Set Up

I am showing the GFS Model against my better judgement, but to illustrate a point. This is the more robust of solutions AND EARLY with the arrival of snow an slush before sunrise.

Timing will be key to get any potential snow into metro areas!

BUT THE COLD CAN’T HOLD

• We are missing a blocking High Pressure to the North. So the storm itself will generate warmer air and pull it northward. This is why most urban areas along I-95 to the coast can expect rain.
• Inland areas will be the transition. Elevation and location will determine how long the cold may hold.
• Our inland suburbs may start with snow and some accumulation.
• Snow falling during the day will eventually land on surface temps above freezing. That is a formula for melting or slush on the grass.

Jet Stream: 500mb Heights

This shows the energy aloft with a Trough Axis that is positively tilted and well inland to our West. This allows the Surface Low to Track North and pull warmer air up at cloud level.

Jet Stream: 500mb Height Anomaly

This helps shows the contrast to average conditions and highlight the core of the cold air across the Great Lakes. This would need to be closer to the Surface Low to allow for stacking the cold air in a deeper column allowing more snow with the developing Low.

Surface Temperature Forecast

National Blend Of Models

If snow falls with temps above freezing, it is likely to melt or nay hold on the grass.

Morning

Afternoon

Evening

Model Comparisons

Snapshots for Morning, Afternoon, and Evening:

The European is later and farther south… but all are now in on the warming for more of our metro area.

Timing will be key to get early snow if this arrives before sunrise.

But during the day I see snow falling with temps too warm for stickage, even a change to rain.

GFS Model

This is faster with the arrival, so an initial slushy snow then goes to rain. This could be a concern just up to sunrise and the the early commute.

Canadian GEM Model

That pink shading is normally reserved for an icy mix. In this case I see wet snow with ground temps above freezing.

ECMWF Model

This is later with the arrival and also farther south with the track, so it keeps the snow falling over the inland suburbs most of the day.

Storm Animation Comparisons

GFS Model Monday Night to Wednesday Morning

ECMWF Model Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning

This is later and tracks a little farther south. That would allow colder air to hang a little south as well. We would still contend with the marginal surface temps and areas with snow falling, but melting.

Snowfall Potential: Ensemble Odds of 1”+

This is the colder ECWMF Model odds made from 51 different scenarios.

This does account or operations model error AND also does NOT account for melting.

NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK

Compare The Model Snow Forecasts to My Call Below

ECMWF Model

Canadian GEM Model

GFS Model

If you saw this model from other weather outlets, here is the reason I often do not use it!  This as most aggressive with snow totals and now swung the other way to account for warming and perhaps under playing some inland snow potential.

My First Call For Snowfall Tuesday

I DO NOT buy into computer model snow forecasts as I see the complication of snow falling and meting. So that will limit totals.

My call accounts for typical early season influence of lower elevation and warmer water to keep most city areas wet to the coast.

Inland areas will be colder and elevation may allow for pockets of higher totals.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF