Weather From 60s To Snow Showers Over The Thanksgiving Holiday
Monday November 24
The roller coaster weather this week is special because it will span across the Thanksgiving Holiday. However in a transition month like November it is more common than many believe to have a big warm up followed by a taste of winter within days.
This week will bring us more needed rain on Tuesday with lingering showers Wednesday that will include a bump of temps to the upper 60s. This same system will be responsible for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Southern U.S. On the north end the Arctic air we’ve been talking about for weeks will spawn heavy Lake Effect Snow.
Here in the Mid Atlantic, the atmosphere is setting up to support flurries and snow showers that may reach into Central Maryland by Friday.
Let’s take a look:
Monday Night Surface Weather
The bulk of the energy with the developing storm has been focused in Texas where severe storms produced at least one tornado today in Houston.
Rain is organizing on the north end which will spread our way on Tuesday.
The firs signal of cold air is arriving along the Canadian border.

TUESDAY
NOAA Severe Storm Outlook
A Slight Risk for storms to turn severe includes Mississippi and Alabama.
There is a marginal risk for thunderstorms into Southern Maryland.

Storm Forecast: Tuesday to Friday
Tracking the storm with rain and warm air, followed but the cold surge and Lake Effect snow expanding into Maryland on Thanksgiving into Friday.

Closer Look
Radar Simulation 7 AM to Midnight

Noon Snapshot
Steady rain is likely into Metro Baltimore and north through PA.

6 PM Snapshot
Rain may be heavy at times into PA, while rain showers will be breaking up in metro areas. There is a chance for spotty showers that pulse with rumbles of thunder.

WEDNESDAY
Radar Simulation 7 AM to Midnight

2 PM Snapshot
Rain showers may be briefly strong with the cold front. Temps will peak and then drop rapidly as they pass.

2 PM Temperatures
Highs will reach the upper 60s.
The cold air into the 40s in the mountains at this time. With rain showers turning to flurries.

8 PM Snapshot
Snow showers will become more pronounced and steady snow that will accumulation into Garrett County MD.

8 PM Temperatures
This may be the most dynamic spread of temps from the 60s in The Lower Eastern Shore to 20s in Garrett County.
Gusty winds will keep temps falling in Central Maryland.

RAINFALL TOTAL POTENTIAL

THANKSGIVING DAY
Morning Temperatures
If you are doing a Turkey Trot it will be windy and chilly!
The 30s may feel like the 20s with the wind chill.

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM
Winds will average 10 to 20 mph and gusting over 30 mph.

Thanksgiving Afternoon Forecast

Ravens Game
The night game in Baltimore will be cold. Here are the forecast conditions at 7 PM when the crowd will be fling in to the stadium. It will be getting colder during the game.
Temperatures

Wind Chill
With winds 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts, temps will FEEL like the 20s downtown.

BLACK FRIDAY MORNING
I am not sure how many still race to be in line at stores, but I you are one in the aging tradition, this is for you. For what it’s worth, I still drive manual transmission by preference. So I understand hanging on to nostalgia.
My truck has heated seats. If you will be standing outside, it will be cold! Nothing dire, just that we are not accustomed to this yet this season.
7 AM Temperatures

7 AM Wind Chill

Will There Be Snow?
The jet stream does support the energy as seen here with the vorticity at 500 mb.

Afternoon Snapshot
This jet streak is aligned to support carrying Lake Effect snow shower over the mountains. At least the moisture may help some snow flurries or a snow shower ready into Central Maryland.

Temperatures
It will not be cold enough for stickage, but it will be chilly in the mid 30s.

Modifying Over The Weekend
Looking Ahead: Jet Stream
Black Friday to Sunday
The arctic blast will relax over next weekend. A big return warm up will follow to start December. This also may be short lived.

Friday
Sunday

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
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