Tuesday, October 28, 2025
This is the worst-case scenario! Hurricane Melissa has been holding at Category 5 with winds of 175 mph. The pressure level dropped to 901 mb overnight, making this the most powerful storm on the planet this year AND the 9th strongest storm on record in the Atlantic. It is also the 3rd Category 5 in the Atlantic this season.
Overnight, Hurricane Hunters recorded a 241 mph Wind Gust AT FLIGHT LEVEL! That was one of the highest ever measured!
Mass Destruction in Jamaica is inevitable today.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON JAMAICA AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA SLOWLY APPROACHES…
…CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND TODAY…
The morning discussion mentions that a secondary eye wall may have formed, suggesting an eye wall replacement cycle… This may lead to some fluctuations in intensity as it approaches the island of Jamaica.
Locally, we expect a larger storm complex to bring us rain later in the work week. That will keep Melissa well off the East Coast AND THEN reinforce the cold air into November.
We also had a small earthquake in Maryland that was felt by a lot of people. This 2.5 Magnitude quake had a loud boom that many heard in Central Maryland!
Still a Category 5 with 175 mph winds. This remains a compact storm as hurricane-force winds reach only 30 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds reach 195 miles away.
The movement to the north can be seen. This is a light push only affecting the steering and not the structure itself.
This very powerful hurricane is still maintaining a classic structure with a symmetrical eye wall AND high clouds tops to 55,000 Ft. Cloud temperatures are down to -90C.
It looks like it will hold Category 5 intensity when it hits Jamaica today.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
This is not the total… since rain has already fallen. This is the additional rain expected.
Final totals still expected to be 40 inches for parts of Jamaica.
These all show the kick to the Atlantic and close to Bermuda… but NOT a US mainland storm. Our local storm and push of colder air will protect us.
Note: The stronger side of the storm is on the ‘right side’ of forward movement. The precise track may shift for landfall and crossing the island.
A little storm system is passing through the Carolinas with rain tracking south of our region. Some of this might affect parts of Delmarva… but we will also get the winds increasing between that Storm and the system to our north.
The next weather maker for us will start with a strong cold front arriving from the central US.
Increase of gusts that may reach 20 to 25 mph FROM the Northeast.
Mostly Cloudy SOUTH of Baltimore, while mostly clear to the North.
Light showers might reach coastal Delmarva and the South.
Yesterday: Low 36F; High 61F
Precipitation: 0.00” (up to midnight)
Sunrise at 7:30 AM
Sunset at 6:10 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 42ºF
Record 27ºF in 1976
Normal High in Baltimore: 64ºF
Record 87ºF 1919
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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The need for rain has been highlighted and may be underrepresented in some spots.
We need rain.
Drizzle or sprinkles will develop ahead of the main rain at night.
The European AI Model picks up the light rain on Wednesday and builds in the heavier rain on Thursday.
A second Coastal Low may develop and enhance the rain into New England while pulling the storm away quickly. This is NOT Melissa…
The hurricane can be seen on the lower right part of this view, moving well off the East Coast.
A rainy day will be the prime pump of moisture passing through our region. That coastal storm is NOT Melissa.
Rainfall will shift to New England as we get into the dry slot of this larger complex. Hurricane Melissa is seen well off the US coast and moving away from the mainland.
The storm moves away, and we get dry winds.
Some showers may fall over the mountains.
The ECMWF AI Model seems to me to be the most likely result. Between 1 and 2 inches appears to be the best bet for our region.
Slightly less rain along the coast.
The Cold will hold here in the Eastern US.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
