Saturday, October 25, 2025
The coldest air of the season has settled in this morning, and we will remain chilly for the foreseeable future. This weekend will remain dry, but clouds are expected to mix across the afternoon sky both days.
We expect a larger storm complex to bring us rain later in the work week and then reinforce the cold air for Halloween.
Today, I want to start with the focus on Tropical Storm Melissa and the anticipated impact on Jamaica. I have received anxious messages from people on vacation there, heading there, and one from a couple who just left their honeymoon with a chaotic attempt, as many leave the island.
The concern for Melissa in Jamaica is dire. It is organizing and expected to be upgraded to a Hurricane TODAY! Then rapidly develop to a Category 4 hurricane with Cat 5 within reach before landfall.
The slow crawl will allow rainfall to be measured in FEET!
The cold air we will get in the Eastern US will help pull the storm north later in the work week.
Let’s take a look…
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
Melissa is EXPECTED to become a Hurricane today and then rapidly develop up to at least Category 4 by tomorrow!
The light steering winds will allow a stall and crawl over very warm water. This will encourage rapid development to major hurricane intensity.
There is ample warm water that runs deep, so upwelling is not expected to be a factor for cooling. Essentially, there is plenty of energy for this to feed off.
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
The National Hurricane Center is picking up the ECMWF Model forecast…
20 to 30 inches expected for the eastern half of Jamaica.
Note: The stronger side of the storm is on the ‘right side’ of forward movement. The precise track may shift for landfall and crossing the island.
These all show the kick to the Atlantic and close to Bermuda… but NOT a US mainland storm. Our local storm and push of colder air will protect us.
Many areas dropped into the 30s, including lower interior Delmarva near Salisbury.
Freezing temps have been reported across Central Virginia to Southern PA.
Yesterday: Low 35F; High 60F
Precipitation: 0.00” (up to midnight)
Sunrise at 7:27 AM
Sunset at 6:14 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 28ºF in 1962
Normal High in Baltimore: 66ºF
Record 80ºF 1902; 2021
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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The need for rain has been highlighted and may be underrepresented in some spots.
We need rain.
The Operational European Model has taken the lead on this storm development. There will be two waves, with the first passing to our south with rain, but clouds may reach us by Tuesday.
The second wave will include two parts. A coastal Low and a larger impulse injected from the Central Plains will merge into a larger East Coast Storm Complex.
The timing places us with the best chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Even cold enough for snow on the high summits of West Virginia.
This is now expected to move out by Halloween with cold winds filling in…. Also helping protect us from Hurricane Melissa.
Rainfall is still uncertain, and why I do NOT like to plot this more than 5 days away. We can look for 1 to 2 inches of rain realistically. I will begin to share those maps tomorrow.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
