Saturday, October 25 2025
This late-season tropical activity in the Caribbean may be one for the record books. Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon and is expected to rapidly develop this weekend into a Major Hurricane. The energy needed to fuel this growth up to Category 4 or even 5 intensity is in the very warm water. But in addition to that, the warm water runs deep! So the slow movement will not upwell cooler water to the surface, allowing for maximum growth.
The slow movement to nearly a crawl this weekend will allow for long-duration heavy rain, which will be enhanced by the mountains on the island of Jamaica. Computer Model guidance and the National Hurricane Center forecast suggest 20 to 30 inches of rain may fall over Eastern Jamaica, with up to 40 inches in the high mountains that top over 7,000 feet. Flooding rain in Eastern Cuba will range from 10 to 20 inches, while Haiti will get less rain farther away from the track, but still enough for flooding.
A pull to the north and then rapid acceleration into the Central Atlantic will take place on Tuesday. This will track well East of the US mainland and pass close to the island of Bermuda later in the week.
To help emphasize the danger, this is part of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:
MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND…
LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK…
The structure looks much better organized as convection is wrapping around the center of the low-pressure. Now that there is an enclosed eye wall structure, rapid development will allow this to reach major hurricane intensity this weekend.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for…
Expectations for 20 to 30 inches across the Eastern side of Jamaica.
With the high mountains over 7,000 Ft, local rainfall may top 40 inches.
This topographical view shows the track on Tuesday.
The stronger side of the storm is on the right side with forward movement. This places Kingston on the right eye wall AND Blue Mountain. That peak is 7,402 Ft high, one of the highest in the Caribbean. Those mountains will inevitably enhance the rainfall, which could double forecasts. Yes, 40” of rainfall is possible.
This will lead to devastating flooding and mudslides.
This consists of 360 different run solutions as noted. The colors and density correlate to the ‘cone’ you may see from the OFFICIAL National Hurricane Center Track Map.
Sunday October 26 to Saturday, November 1
The waves associated with Hurricane Melissa will be localized. While they may top 60 Ft and the storm surge will add to the devastation in Jamaica, they will not impact the Eastern US.
The waves off the East Coast are from the Jet Stream that will help kick the hurricane to the north and into the Central Atlantic.
The Polar Jet will be diving into the US, and in this view, we can see how it will interact with Hurricane Melissa to kick it out of the Caribbean.
This is also validation that this will NOT be an East Coast event.
With the advance of a Canadian Air Mass towards the East Coast, this will protect the US mainland and help drive Hurricane Melissa into the Central Atlantic.
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