October 22 Colder Winds Set Up A New Pattern And It May Affect The Track Of Tropical Storm Melissa

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

The rain that arrived last night was part of a cold front that is setting up a new weather pattern. Yes, it is Autumn, and it will feel chilly. But temps will be running below average and holding the cold through next week.

Reinforcing surges of cold air are part of an active jet stream that may involve a large storm next week. That will send the cold to the Gulf Coast, AND may be responsible for taking newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa up into the Central Atlantic.

The tropical storm is expected to become a hurricane and may stall near Jamaica this weekend until that cold air can lift it away.

Let’s take a look…

Morning Temperatures

Surface Weather

Wind Forecast 8 AM to Midnight

Afternoon Wind Forecast

Gusts 20 to 25 mph and definitely a chilly feel in the air.

Cloud Forecast 8 AM to Midnight

Afternoon Clouds

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

Yesterday: Low 40F; High 73F

Precipitation: 0.02” 

TODAY October 22

Sunrise at 7:24 AM

Sunset at 6:18 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  44ºF

Record 31ºF in 1952

Normal High in Baltimore: 66ºF

Record 85ºF 1920; 1979

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

Ending 2024 =  -8.00”

Since Jan 1 =  5.96”

We are STILL DOWN -13.96” INCLUDING LAST YEAR

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THURSDAY

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast

Afternoon Wind Snapshot

Still brisk winds around 20 mph from the West.

Afternoon Temperatures

Looking Ahead:

Jet Stream: Thursday, October 23, to NEXT Thursday, October 30

Reinforcing surges of chilly air will get a big boost with a very deep trough next week. If you look to the right, you will see Melissa (possibly as a hurricane) getting pulled up to the North well off the coast.

Snapshots

Thursday October 23

The core of this round of cool air settles in.

Sunday October 26

Quiet and calm wind… still chilly.

NEXT Thursday, October 30

This DEEP TROUGH will be a major pattern adjustment for the East Coast, AND will dig far enough south to pull Melissa up into the Atlantic.

Wide View

This shows North America and may better show the influence of the Jet Stream and Melissa in the Caribbean, getting pulled north next week.

Tropical Outlook

Tropical Storm Melissa has 50 mph winds. Its movement to the West Northwest at 7 mph is slowing down.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

• LOCATION…14.3N 73.5W
• ABOUT 305 MI…495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

Satellite Loop Wednesday  Morning

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

It is expected to become a Category 2 Hurricane and stall near Jamaica for a few days.

More Detailed Look: Thanks to Homer Burg

Computer Guidance: Deterministic Model Tracks

The GFS Model is the outlier bringing this north, while the consensus is an expected stall near Jamaica through the weekend until it gets picked up by our East Coast TROUGH next week. Google DeepMind and ECMWF are later and closer to the Bahamas. The Canadian CMC is later, and the outlier taking it close to New England. I would not rely on that.

7 Day Forecast

• Today: Windy and Cooler
• More Chilly Air To Last Through Next Week
• Weekend: Sunny With Less Wind

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Average First Frost

La Niña Advisory

This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

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