Tuesday, October 21, 2025
A very active storm track to our north will help drag another cold front our way. That will be the reason for the push of warm winds today, rain showers tonight, then colder winds tomorrow. A new air mass will dominate cooler air through the weekend.
Another tropical system is on the verge of forming. The disturbance in the Caribbean, now given a 90% chance of development, is expected to become Tropical Storm Melissa. New forecast models below show the abrupt turn to the north. These still show it missing the US, but also a good test for which model is seeing the global pattern best.
Let’s take a look…
Gusts over 20 mph will help get many areas back to 70°F.
A band of rain showers will arrive in the mountains this afternoon and cross metro sections around I-83 and I-95 tonight.
Yesterday: Low 43F; High 66F
Precipitation: 0.04” (up to midnight)
Sunrise at 7:23 AM
Sunset at 6:19 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 26ºF in 1952
Normal High in Baltimore: 67ºF
Record 90ºF 1947
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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Extreme Drought in the Mountains.
Abnormally dry in metro areas, but it seems worse than that.
Colder winds from the west.
The next storm potential is up to 90% over the next 48 hours.
The next name on the list is Melissa.
This ‘Soon to be Melissa’ storm will make a turn to the north.
The main split now is when.
GFS is the earliest, while DeepMind and ECMWF are later and close to the Bahamas. The Canadian CMC is later, and the outlier close to New England. I would not rely on that.
While the timing is different, they all show the turn north and missing the US.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
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