Saturday, October 18, 2025
We have turned the corner from the recent cold air mass. It is still cool this morning, but not as chilly. This is in part due to the arrival of clouds, but also a shift in winds aloft.
A cluster of clouds will dominate the first part of today, then will clear gradually and should improve in the afternoon and evening.
The warm-up will be more noticeable on Sunday with more sunshine. The risk of rain will arrive in the mountains during the afternoon, but most metro areas to the beaches will hold on to a dry day, then get rain at night.
This rain may be heavy at times, then move away early Monday.
Next week will have frequent impulses to reinforce the cool air.
Let’s take a look…
This is a great weekend for a short drive to find leaf colors. If you do not have the colors where you live, you may in the next week or two.
The next few weeks will increase our chance to view the last comet pass. The focus will shift to the evening, and we have a chance to clear the clouds in time. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset.
Not as chilly as yesterday morning thanks to added cloud cover.
Most areas are in the 40s.
A band of clouds passing through the Mid-Atlantic this morning is the result of a wind shift aloft marking the push of warmer air on the way in.
The cold front will arrive late Sunday and overnight. We can expect the bulk of the rain during the ‘dark hours,’ ending by sunrise on Monday.
However, more rain is expected to follow on Monday in the mountains.
A band of clouds is expected to dominate this morning. These will try to break up during the afternoon, with gradual clearing.
Yesterday: Low 38F; High 66F
Precipitation: 0.00”
Sunrise at 7:20 AM
Sunset at 6:23 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 30ºF in 1982
Normal High in Baltimore: 68ºF
Record 84ºF 1881; 2016
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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Extreme Drought in the Mountains.
Abnormally dry in metro areas, but it seems worse than that.
Showers will develop in the afternoon and evening across the mountains while remaining dry in most areas to the east.
THIS IS A CONTINUED TEST: Let’s compare the AI Version of the European Model to the Operational version and the GFS Model.
Last week I showed these three, and the AI version performed the best in this same time window. I will again do a comparison of the results.
Reinforcing Push Of Cold Air
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
These are NOT all the same caterpillar!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
