Wednesday, October 8, 2025
The weather is about to wake up from its slumber, and a lot is expected over the next week. Rain this morning will be ending and followed by chilly winds. High Temperatures are expected to stay in the 60s through next week.
The core of the chill will be Friday morning as frost is expected for the inland suburbs of Baltimore in Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania.
A strong coastal storm will form this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic. There are still some differing scenarios, but the animations below show the essence of how it will form and what is expected. This may be a subtropical Low that could get a name. Pressure levels will be low enough, and waves on the coast will be very high!
Tropical Storm Jerry formed in the Atlantic and is expected to become a hurricane. It is also expected to turn east of Bermuda and miss the US East Coast. We have enough to deal with.
Let’s take a look….
The cold front is the main story, and it will reach us today. Ahead of it are developing showers and thunderstorms in the warm air. There is an area of Low Pressure riding up the mountains that will enhance the rain risk today to our west.
The main rain will pass today, followed by chilly air the rest of the week.
Yesterday: Low 59F; High 81F
Precipitation: 0.01”
Sunrise at 7:10 AM
Sunset at 6:38 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 50ºF
Record 31ºF in 2001
Normal High in Baltimore: 71ºF
Record 91ºF 2007
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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The chilly air will be in place. Cold enough for possible frost across the mountain region IF the winds can settle down enough.
The wind from the North will average 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Frost is more likely for the local inland suburbs.
Now that we are closer, I feel better showing the operational ECMWF Model. There has been fluctuation in how this will develop, including its proximity to the coast and intensity.
We will be watching TWO PARTS that are expected to merge, which could bring up a reminder of the Fujiwhara Effect you may have seen recently. The atmosphere behaves the same way with many scales of weather.
The strong wave in Canada will dive south and interact with another wave across the Gulf region and meet across the Mid-Atlantic.
As both pieces of energy get closer together, they are expected to affect each other in a dance that is still not locked in place. The expectation here is that they will merge around the Mid-Atlantic, causing it to wander or stall nearby.
The energy with the Coastal Low will grow stronger and produce rain, strong winds, and high waves along the coast.
Here we see the two pieces of energy. One in the Great Lakes, the other off the South Carolina Coast.
A strong coastal low will be enhanced with the pressure gradient funneled onshore thanks to High Pressure in New England.
Surface Low forecast pressure down to 988mb. This is equivalent to a Category 1 Hurricane. While not tropical, it may be sub-tropical.
Tropical Storm Jerry has formed.
Winds are 50 mph today, and it is expected to become a Hurricane.
The track keeps it NORTH of Puerto Rico and turns East of Bermuda. So, no threat to the East Coast.
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These are NOT all the same caterpillar!
I posted a report earlier about The La Niña Watch. This is expected to be brief and trend back to neutral, which could result in an active and snowy winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
