October 7 Showers Develop With Rain Overnight Then Chilly Pattern May Bring First Frost

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

This morning starts warm, but the day will look different. An approaching cold front will bring more clouds, and some rain showers will begin to move into the region. This morning, the mountains to our west get rain, then showers will expand through the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight and tomorrow as a cold front will bring a true pattern change.

Temperatures for the rest of the week will be chilly. Afternoons stay in the 60s, while inland areas may be cold enough for the first frost on Thursday and then more likely Friday morning.

This weekend is the Autumn Glory Festival in Garrett County, MD, and I am honored to serve as Grand Marshall of the parade on Saturday. The weather will be perfect and feel much more like ‘autumn’.

We are also watching a coastal storm that will try to develop over the weekend and could affect us by Sunday. This looks like a high Nor’easter with coastal wind and beach erosion.

Did you see the Supermoon?

Here are a few photos we captured in the evening, and my suggested winning pic.

Supermoon With A Plane In Transit

Brenda Bowman captured this by accident.

First of 4 SUPERMOONS In A ROW

Local Weather Look

Surface Weather

The cold front is the main story, and it will reach us tomorrow. Ahead of it are developing showers and thunderstorms in the warm air. There is an area of Low Pressure riding up the mountains that will enhance the rain risk today to our west.

The main rain will pass tomorrow, followed by chilly air the rest of the week.

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation Noon to Midnight

Snapshot at 4 PM

Showers will fall during the day in the mountains, they should pass Frederick to Westminster between 2 PM and  4 PM.

High Temperatures

Evening Snapshot

More rain will develop across Central Maryland and Southern PA during the late afternoon and evening.

Midnight

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

Yesterday: Low 53F; High 82F

Precipitation: 0.00”

TODAY October 7

Sunrise at 7:09 AM

Sunset at 6:39 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  50ºF

Record 35ºF in 1964; 1991; 2001

Normal High in Baltimore: 72ºF

Record 96ºF 1941

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00”
• Since Jan 1 =  4.76”
• We are STILL DOWN -12.76” INCLUDING LAST YEAR

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WEDNESDAY

Radar Simulation Midnight to 4 PM

Morning Snapshot

Morning Temperatures

Noon Snapshot

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

Potential Rainfall Total

Cold Morning Temperatures Suggestion

Thursday Morning

Frost is likely in the mountain region.

Friday Morning

Frost is more likely for the local inland suburbs.

Weekend Coastal Storm?

The AI Version of the European Model is still showing a spin-up off the East Coast. This is not locked in yet due to location/track. But I am introducing the chance for rain, wind, and beach erosion for Sunday and Monday.

TROPICAL WEATHER

National Hurricane Center Outlook

The Atlantic Look is up to 90% and is expected to follow the last few storms. The climatology of this region for this time of year would support staying out to sea.

Invest 95L Forecast Model

Google DeepMind is showing this following the trend to develop and turn away from the Eastern US. The Nor’easter forecast is NOT this storm.

7 Day Forecast

• Next Chance Of Storms Late Tuesday to Wednesday
• Chilly End To Next Week
• Still watching Sunday and Monday for any impact from the developing Coastal Storm.

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In Case You Missed It

Wooly Bear Caterpillar Winter Folklore

These are NOT all the same caterpillar!

La Nina

I posted a report earlier about The La Niña Watch. This is expected to be brief and trend back to neutral, which could result in an active and snowy winter.

Take A Look…

Winter Outlook From 2 Farmers Almanacs

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 Completed Sat August 9

UPDATED: We raised OVER $166,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

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