August 19, 2025
11:00 AM Tuesday
Hurricane Erin has dropped to a Category 2 intensity today. Winds were 110 mph in the 11 AM Update from the National Hurricane Center. This storm was never expected to make landfall, yet the forecast continues to show it growing larger in size. That’s common, especially with major hurricanes that move north and weaken.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for the Mid-Atlantic coast between North Carolina and Maryland. This is NOT for a direct impact. The eye will remain a few hundred miles off the coast, so it will not make landfall. But the high water will pound Mid-Atlantic beaches with growing waves and beach erosion all week. Wind Gusts may reach over 40 mph, and an outer rain band may scrape the coast.
The worst conditions will be on Thursday as this makes the closest pass and turns away into the North Atlantic.
This is from the East Winds In Place- NOT From Erin (yet)
This is what the coastal water looked like Mon Aug 18 well ahead of #hurricane #erin
🛥️ @EvergladesBoats
🎥 Thanks to my friend Walter George with Annapolis Boat Sales
📍 Ocean City MD Inlet pic.twitter.com/AWcJFn71hZ— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) August 19, 2025
This also includes a Storm Surge Watch and Small Craft Advisory
In this report, we will look at Hurricane Erin today and the impact on North Carolina and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia
* Coastal Waters Include Ocean City MD to Fenwick Island DE.
PEAK WINDS 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Potential up to 57 mph.
The direction from the northeast is important. It will be like a strong Nor’easter, with wind and waves following on the coast.
The Chesapeake Bay will have a ‘sloshing’ or piling up of higher water on the Western Shore. This may bring flooding to Baltimore County. It will bring flooding to Annapolis and southward.
Still expected to pass NORTH of the Caribbean Islands, East of The Bahamas, AND West of Bermuda.
A cold front will approach the Eastern US, which will help steer Erin farther out to sea.
Here we can see the high water influence approaching the East Coast.
Yes, there will be rip currents and even high water up the Chesapeake Bay… but the worst will stay out to sea.
NOAA Tropical Storm Watch
NOAA Storm Surge Watch
NOAA Max Wave Heights
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