Severe Storm And Flood Update Monday Afternoon July 14

Monday Afternoon

July 14, 2025

The atmosphere is still very juicy! Dew points are high in the mid-70s, which means there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere to work with. These are the precise words I had in a report last week, and they have applied to almost every day since.

Today, we have a weak cold front approaching from the west that will be the instigator for storms that are already forming. A prefrontal trough is a weakness and wind shift in the atmosphere ahead of the front, which is another focus for additional storm cells.

This post has the latest Alerts and Outlooks, and forecast radar simulation through tonight.

Also in this report, I have included the LIVE Radar and Lightning Widget. It is important to note that any storm, even without a warning, can produce dangerous lightning and torrential downpours.

Alerts And Outlooks

• NOAA INCREASED Our Flash Flood Guidance to Moderate with a 40% likelihood that storm cells will produce flooding.
• NOAA INCREASED Our Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
• Flood Watch: Potential for rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches.
• Rainfall RATES in individual cells may exceed 2 inches per hour.
• Slow-moving storms can really add up.
• Multiple storm cells can really add up as well

Afternoon Surface Weather

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

UPDATE: NOAA Severe Storm Risk INCREASED

A chance for a thunderstorm to grow to severe levels, which may include:

• Damaging Wind Gusts
• Large Hail
• Isolated Tornadoes
• Any storm may contain dangerous lightning and local flash flooding.

A WARNING will be issued when storms are identified, and track-specific towns in the path will be listed. These usually last 45 minutes, while Flood Warnings may last many hours.

Flood Watch

UPDATED Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Moderate Risk

Radar Simulation 2 PM to 2 AM Tuesday

This simulation is a suggestion and not a promise. Use this as a rough guide for the timeline.

Snapshots

4 PM

8 PM

10 PM

Flooding On Sunday

BETWEEN Catonsville and Ellicott City

Baltimore Beltway By I-70

Construction in this region is routine and many drivers have stated so is the poor drainage and flooding.

Looking Ahead

TUESDAY

Morning Temperatures

Radar Simulation 6 AM to 8 PM

SUGGESTION, NOT A PROMISE

Afternoon Temperatures

Storm Forecast Tuesday  to Friday

Numerous DAILY thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

More early in the week.

7 Day Forecast

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF