July 4 Very Nice Independence Day Weather And Increased Potential Tropical Formation Off The Coast

Friday, July 4  2025

Morning Report

Happy Birthday America! This may be the nicest possible weather we can have for Independence Day! A new air mass has established itself from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

There is a ring of fire with thunderstorms, including the Deep South and the Northern Plains.

The biggest concern is the potential for tropical development off the Southeast US coast later this weekend and into next week.

Tropical Satellite

This area of Low Pressure looks better organized this morning. There is a 60% chance it will develop in the next 48 hours and a 60% of formation by early next week.

Satellite Loop

National Hurricane Center Outlook

Morning Surface Weather

That tropical potential is south of our old frontal boundary. We are in a large region of High Pressure that has carved out a very pleasant air mass with low humidity and plenty of sunshine. This will last for a few days.

Storm Forecast: Friday to Monday

High Pressure will be the dominant feature with low humidity and sunny warm days.

The only wrinkle may be tropical development off the coast of the Southeast US this weekend.

Today: Wind Forecast: 8 AM to 8 PM

Light wind from the North will keep the humidity low.

Afternoon High Temperatures

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CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY July 4

Sunrise at 5:46 AM

Sunset at 8:36 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  67ºF

Record 53ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF

Record 100ºF 1898; 1966; 2002

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

Ending 2024 =  -8.00”

Since Jan 1 =  -1.49”

We are STILL DOWN -9.49” INCLUDING LAST YEAR

SATURDAY

Morning Low Temperatures

Afternoon High Temperatures

7 Day Forecast

• Absolutely Pleasant
• Possible Beach Showers on Sunday Afternoon
• Daily Thundershowers in the typical Summer heat pattern next week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF