Thursday, June 19, Afternoon Update
We have had another Flood Watch issued this afternoon ahead of expected severe storms. Like yesterday, there may be an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued as the risk level is higher than yesterday.
Storms will flare up between 3 PM and 7 PM. Some areas may experience multiple cells over that time window. Consider that yesterday, we did get the action starting up about 1 hour earlier than the simulations. So, please keep a wider timeline in mind for your plans.
This report will include the live radar and lightning widget to compare to the forecast simulation.
This is confined to the region where water levels are high from yesterday’s rainfall. Like the previous storms, rainfall rates may exceed 1”/Hour, and totals up to 3 inches are possible.
Heaviest rainfall was across Central Maryland, including metro Washington, Howard, and Anne Arundel Counties.
The Level 3 Enhanced Risk includes metro Baltimore, Washington, and even Philadelphia.
Potential for storms to produce:
A cold front is the main energy maker. The pre-frontal trough highlighting the high humidity is the added influence that will help storms to grow once they form and reach near the big cities.
This measures the chance for storms to turn severe.
We have a Southwest flow, which is not ideal for severe weather. We usually peak with an easterly component to enhance storms. But we can get severe weather in this setup.
The storm line was moving cells 30 to 40 mph to the Northeast, 30 to 60 minutes ahead of the model forecast simulation. Consider that with the timeline below.
These are SUGGESTIONS and NOT Perfect. It is a guide for development.
Yesterday, this product was off by about 1 hour, with the actual storm line arriving earlier.
The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.
Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.
Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.
Click here or the image to donate:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
This is an annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between the Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.
Here are the kids we will honor each day as we cross Maryland.
Our full week team is set. We have our Day 4 all-bike ride open for registration.
