Friday, May 16, 2025
A busy weather day lies ahead with an unstable atmosphere charged to produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some of these have the risk of producing severe weather and reaching the criteria of damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
The humidity is a factor this morning with a Dense Fog Advisory highlighting visibility under 1 mile in Northeast Maryland to metro Philadelphia. This may be the same region to experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms as well today.
The suggestion for how this may play out is on display with the high-resolution short-range forecast simulation below. This is a guide and may not be perfect. We will be watching the live radar to see how each cell develops and behaves. The morning flare-up may shift the focus of energy for the later rounds this afternoon, so please just consider that active weather is possible. If it does develop, here are the alerts to consider:
Watch: Issued when severe weather conditions MAY develop. This will be a 6 hour time window for a large area.
Warning: Issued when a severe storm or event is occurring and being tracked. Often with a cluster of storms, this will have a 45-minute window and have specific towns listed.
Forecast maps are below
TODAY May 16
Sunrise at 5:52 AM
Sunset at 8:14 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 53ºF
Record 37ºF in 1973; 2016
Normal High in Baltimore: 75ºF
Record 92ºF 1944; 1998
Drought Reminder
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will develop. The first will be the tail end of a complex across New York and Pennsylvania that will extend south and may clip central and northeastern Maryland this morning.
More rounds will develop in the afternoon and evening.
The activity will be shifting EAST. Any chance of storms may be early, then clearing with lower humidity in the afternoon. This supports better weather for the Preakness in Baltimore.
The trend for next week is cooler weather. This will come with rain on Wednesday.
The next rain event will be a large storm system sending rain Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March Click to see more and send a request for your school.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
