Severe Storm Risk Increased Monday May 5 Through Tonight

May 5, 2025

Monday Afternoon Update

Our weather pattern continues to be dominated by this nearly stalled Upper Level Low in the Midwest.

A combination of the cool air aloft, the air flow from the South, and humid ocean air is forming bands of rain that move with the wind to the North.

A little bit more energy has increased the instability, which may help more thunderstorms turn severe.

Shore range models have not been precise, but the simulation below will show the flow of storms and suggests the action will build this afternoon and last through this evening.

Compare the Live Radar to the forecast simulation:

Live Radar and Lighting Widget

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

Slight Risk is Level 2 and suggests some storms may produce:

• Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph
• Large hail over 1” in diameter
• Isolated Tornadoes

Weather Alerts

Watch: This may be issued for a large region covering a 6-hour period. This means there is Potential for severe weather to form.

Warning: This is issued if an actual storm forms with those severe criteria. It will be tracked in a time window of usually 45 minutes, and towns in the path will be listed.

UPDATE at 6:15 PM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT

This area includes Eastern and North Central Virginia, Central Maryland – including The Eastern Shore, and Souther Pennsylvania.

Surface Weather Monday Afternoon

HRRR Model: 2 PM to 2 AM Tuesday

Hourly Snapshots

These are suggestions, NOT A Promise To Look Like This. The focus is on more showers and storms through tonight, moving South to North.

4 PM

8 PM

10 PM

Midnight

2 AM

Looking Ahead

Tuesday

Morning Low Temps

Radar Simulation 6 AM to 8 PM

Another day with showers and some thunderstorms developing in the heat of the day… while steadier rain may move in across the mountains towards evening.

Afternoon High Temperatures

LOOKING AHEAD

This pattern will relax mid-week, and a push of colder air is expected to drop temperatures and bring more rain on Friday.

Jet Stream: Thursday to Sunday

The upper-level pattern will transition to another pocket of cool and unsettled air that may bring the next round of rain.

Storm Pattern Wednesday to Saturday

As this round of wet weather breaks Wednesday afternoon, the next will develop Friday, which could be chilly and wet.

Then showers on Saturday will shift away and give us a nicer end to the weekend.

Snapshots:

Wednesday

This may start with morning rain, then some clearing and diminished showers with our break in the action.

Thursday

This looks like a dry day (for now).

Friday Afternoon

This is looking like a wet day as that pocket of cool air and a slow-moving upper-level storm passes through the region.

Saturday Afternoon

The energy will pivot to our north, with the focus of showers and thunderstorms shifting.

7 Day Forecast

• The chance for showers and storms will decrease on Tuesday.
• Wednesday may start wet and then end with clearing.
• The next pocket of chilly air brings rain Friday and showers Saturday, then improving Sunday.

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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF