April 25, 2025
Friday Evening Update
Some rain has developed this afternoon and more is expected through this evening and overnight. A few thunderstorms may pass overhead as well. I will lay it all out below for tomorrow.
Let’s start with the rain this evening and tonight. In fact, this may include thunder, lightning, and some downpours…
I took this snapshot just before posting. That cluster of storms in the mountains is what we are tracking to cross Central Maryland tonight. This actually looks MORE ACTIVE than the short range forecast models… So more of the region may get in on the rain tonight.
(You will likely see this AFTER 6 PM, so the rain will have moved)
This looks like a potent line of heavy rain heading through the mountains.
The action is shown passing through Frederick to Harrisburg, PA. I believe there will be more activity than shown here south of that line in Northern Virginia.
While this batch may pass north of Baltimore, I would watch that cell near Washington. As the radar I showed at 6 PM suggested, that part of the line may be more active, so more of Central Maryland, including Annapolis, may get in on the action before midnight.
The purpose of this post is to give you a general idea of our forecast for rain tonight into Saturday. I have a few computer models to compare with the idea of how the line of thunderstorms may affect your area during the day.
We need rain as we are in a severe drought. Baltimore has received -3.76 ” less rain than the average to date. If we include last year’s drought, BWI has decreased by -11.76” since Jan 1, 2024.
Also, brushfires have broken out, burning thousands of acres in Southern Pennsylvania. I wrote about that earlier today.
There have been some rain showers over the Shippensburg, PA fire area this afternoon. The rain we have developing today has been well ahead of the main event in the Ohio Valley.
This is organizing and will pass through our region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Sunday will be nicer.
Weather forecasting is imperfect, but our society relies on it often. That is not a secret. Which is why I have made an effort to emphasize recently that the guidance I use for short-range forecasting has been less reliable. The maps I use for radar simulations are to be used as a guide for timing. Stronger events tend to work out better, but when scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up during the day, different computer models can diverge to show a wide range of how it will play out.
The BIG PICTURE view is that we will have showers tonight into Saturday morning. Then, there will be a break, with another buildup of rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, then clearing on Sunday.
This gets more challenging to refine the resolution for specific bands of rain or lines of thunderstorms and timing them for each town. This is where the imperfection really shows.
The next part of this event is where it gets wonky.
There will be showers in the morning, but how much of a break we get is not promised.
Here is a comparison of the THREE short-range models I rely on.
Which is more reliable? Well, the HRRR is often best in the next 6 hours as it updates every hour. But farther out in time, it does change. The best answer is to use them all and develop a blend.
I would plan on the risk for thunderstorms in Central Maryland in the afternoon between 2 PM and 6 PM, then shifting south to last into the evening in Southern Maryland… while northern areas clear out.
WRF Model: This is more active and Slower with the line of thunderstorms, which could result in more rain.
NAM 3 Km: This is less active and faster with the line of thunderstorms.
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