Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/16/2025 12:10:03 am
Temperature

51°

Cloudy with Mist and Fog

48°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

89%

Feels Like

51°

Wind (E)

8mph

Air Pressure

29.98

Sun
Sun Rise

07:17 AM

Sun Set

07:13 PM

Day Length

11:56 Hours

Difference

0 min 0 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

08:48 PM

Moon Set

07:48 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Mar 22,2025

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

33°

54°

Average High
Record Low

14°


(1911)

85°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

Sunday Severe Storm Risk And Rain Timeline March 16

hail
NOAA
Storm Forecast
Maryland Weather
Severe
Outlook
tornado
Severe Weather
Warnings

Saturday Evening Update

The latest storm charging across the US has become a deadly force that has included widespread tornadoes, a massive dust storm, and even a blizzard on the north end. I looked back at my notes and saw a set up with the last storm the was familiar for our region here in the Mid Atlantic region.

This report may be good new considering that we will get needed rain that could surpass 1 inch, and the cool temps may limit the chance for storms to turn severe. There is a chance, but I see it as being low and more likely father south.

The marine layer of clouds and dampness has kept our temperatures low, which is not what you would normally expect to provide the energy to produce violent weather. While there will be a surge of warmer air on Sunday, I think the energy needed for severe storms will be limited and more likely farther south.

We will have rain showers develop from morning to mid day, then a solid line of heavier rain added thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. That has a Slight Risk to include severe weather, but not like the outbreak that burst across the Southern US today.

Keep this in mind as we dive in to this:

Severe Storm Cells can produce:

  • Damaging Winds OVER 58 mph
  • Large Hail OVER 1 inch diameter
  • Isolated Tornadoes

Saturday Storm Reports (as of 8 PM)

  • 16 Tornado
  • 54 Wind Damage Reports
  • 18 Large Hail Reports
  • 4 Blizzard Reports (Minnesota)

March 15 NOAA Storm Reports

Saturday Night Surface Weather

March 15 weather storm map Saturday night

 

Live Radar Widget

 

NOAA OUTLOOK MAPS

These show the potential that any storm cell may produce these conditions. Not all will rise to these levels, but that line is worth watching closely.

Severe Storm Risk

March 15 NOAA Severe Storm Risk Sunday

 

Closer Look

March 15 NOAA Severe Storm Risk Sunday Maryland

Damaging Wind

The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce winds over 58 mph.

March 15 NOAA storm risk for damaging wind

 

Large Hail

The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce hail over 1 inch  diamter.

March 15 NOAA storm risk for large hail

 

Tornado

The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce a tornado.

March 15 NOAA storm risk for tornado

 

Storm Alerts: Maybe issued for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding.

Watch: Potential For Development . Time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.

Warning: Identified storm cell. Time frame usually 45 minted and will include towns in the path.

 

Wednesday Forecast Radar

NAM 3Km Model 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM Monday

Wind Gusts Over 50 mph will be common even it you do not get to severe limits.

March 15 storm radar Sunday

 

 

Timeline Snapshots

These are suggestions and best to apply a 1 hour buffer for this to verify a littler earlier or later than shown.

8 AM

March 15 storm radar Sunday morning

 

Drizzle may be occurring when we wake up as rain showers will be forming in the mountains.

12 PM

March 15 storm radar Sunday Noon

 

4 PM

March 15 storm radar Sunday afternoon 4 PM

 

6 PM

March 15 storm radar Sunday evening 6 PM

 

8 PM

March 15 storm radar Sunday night 8 PM

 

10 PM

March 15 storm radar Sunday night 10 PM

 

Midnight 12 AM Monday

March 15 storm radar midnight Monday 12 AM

 

Rainfall Potential

There is a discrepancy among the model forecast plots, but I still think east of the mountains we can look for 1 inch of rain or more.

NAM 3Km

March 15 weather rain total NAM

 

ECMWF Model

March 15 weather rain total ECMWF

 

GFS Model

This has continued to produce the highest numbers and I think this may be too high.

March 15 weather rain total GFS

Drought Update

Rainfall Deficit at BWI through today March 15:
  • Ending 2024 = -8.00”
  • Since Jan 1 = -2.99”
  • We are DOWN -10.99” including last year!

March 15 Drought Update

I will have an update with my full report Sunday morning.

 

7 Day Forecast

Our storm focus will be Sunday afternoon and night. This will briefly bring in warmer air, then cool again as we clear out on Monday.

Warming again mid-week ahead of the next chance for storms on Thursday.

March 15 weather forecast 7 day Saturday

 

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March Madness: History of Extreme Weather and Late Season Snow

Click here for the full report:

March Snow Map NESIS 1958

 

SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

Just A Bit Outside Feb 19

Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.

February 20 snow total Mid Atlantic

February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

click here or the map for more

January 19 Snow Report

January 19 snow spotter reports NWS Maryland Virginia

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

January 6 snowfall Mid Atlantic

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

November 22 Snow Analysis Map Mid Atlantic

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

January 30 La Nina Advisory NOAA

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

Winter 2024 to 2025 Snow Forecast Maryland Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia Delaware

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

December Snow JB_B FITF 2009

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THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $111,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF