Saturday Evening Update
The latest storm charging across the US has become a deadly force that has included widespread tornadoes, a massive dust storm, and even a blizzard on the north end. I looked back at my notes and saw a setup with the last storm that was familiar for our region here in the Mid-Atlantic region.
This report may be good news considering that we will get needed rain that could surpass 1 inch, and the cool temperatures may limit the chance for storms to turn severe. There is a chance, but I see it as low and more likely to be south.
The marine layer of clouds and dampness has kept our temperatures low, which is not what you would normally expect to provide the energy to produce violent weather. While there will be a surge of warmer air on Sunday, I think the energy needed for severe storms will be limited and more likely farther south.
We will have rain showers develop from morning to mid-day, then a solid line of heavier rain with added thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. That has a Slight Risk to include severe weather, but not like the outbreak that burst across the Southern US today.
Keep this in mind as we dive into this:
These show the potential that any storm cell may produce these conditions. Not all will rise to these levels, but that line is worth watching closely.
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce winds over 58 mph.
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce hail over 1 inch in diameter.
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce a tornado.
Watch: Potential For Development. The time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.
Warning: Identified storm cell. The time frame is usually 45 minutes and will include towns in the path.
NAM 3Km Model 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM Monday
Wind Gusts Over 50 mph will be common even if you do not get to severe limits.
These are suggestions. It is best to apply a one-hour buffer for this to verify a little earlier or later than shown.
Drizzle may be occurring when we wake up as rain showers will be forming in the mountains.
There is a discrepancy among the model forecast plots, but I still think east of the mountains, we can expect 1 inch of rain or more.
This has continued to produce the highest numbers and I think this may be too high.
I will have an update with my full report Sunday morning.
Our storm focus will be Sunday afternoon and night. This will briefly bring in warmer air, then cool again as we clear out on Monday.
Warming again mid-week ahead of the next chance for storms on Thursday.
Click here for the full report:
Click on the maps for that full report.
Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.
click here or the map for more
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
