Sunday Severe Storm Risk And Rain Timeline March 16
Saturday Evening Update
The latest storm charging across the US has become a deadly force that has included widespread tornadoes, a massive dust storm, and even a blizzard on the north end. I looked back at my notes and saw a set up with the last storm the was familiar for our region here in the Mid Atlantic region.
This report may be good new considering that we will get needed rain that could surpass 1 inch, and the cool temps may limit the chance for storms to turn severe. There is a chance, but I see it as being low and more likely father south.
The marine layer of clouds and dampness has kept our temperatures low, which is not what you would normally expect to provide the energy to produce violent weather. While there will be a surge of warmer air on Sunday, I think the energy needed for severe storms will be limited and more likely farther south.
We will have rain showers develop from morning to mid day, then a solid line of heavier rain added thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. That has a Slight Risk to include severe weather, but not like the outbreak that burst across the Southern US today.
Keep this in mind as we dive in to this:
Severe Storm Cells can produce:
- Damaging Winds OVER 58 mph
- Large Hail OVER 1 inch diameter
- Isolated Tornadoes
Saturday Storm Reports (as of 8 PM)
- 16 Tornado
- 54 Wind Damage Reports
- 18 Large Hail Reports
- 4 Blizzard Reports (Minnesota)
Saturday Night Surface Weather
Live Radar Widget
NOAA OUTLOOK MAPS
These show the potential that any storm cell may produce these conditions. Not all will rise to these levels, but that line is worth watching closely.
Severe Storm Risk
Closer Look
Damaging Wind
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce winds over 58 mph.
Large Hail
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce hail over 1 inch diamter.
Tornado
The odds that any storm cell in this area will produce a tornado.
Storm Alerts: Maybe issued for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding.
Watch: Potential For Development . Time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.
Warning: Identified storm cell. Time frame usually 45 minted and will include towns in the path.
Wednesday Forecast Radar
NAM 3Km Model 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM Monday
Wind Gusts Over 50 mph will be common even it you do not get to severe limits.
Timeline Snapshots
These are suggestions and best to apply a 1 hour buffer for this to verify a littler earlier or later than shown.
8 AM
Drizzle may be occurring when we wake up as rain showers will be forming in the mountains.
12 PM
4 PM
6 PM
8 PM
10 PM
Midnight 12 AM Monday
Rainfall Potential
There is a discrepancy among the model forecast plots, but I still think east of the mountains we can look for 1 inch of rain or more.
NAM 3Km
ECMWF Model
GFS Model
This has continued to produce the highest numbers and I think this may be too high.
Drought Update
- Ending 2024 = -8.00”
- Since Jan 1 = -2.99”
- We are DOWN -10.99” including last year!
I will have an update with my full report Sunday morning.
7 Day Forecast
Our storm focus will be Sunday afternoon and night. This will briefly bring in warmer air, then cool again as we clear out on Monday.
Warming again mid-week ahead of the next chance for storms on Thursday.
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March Madness: History of Extreme Weather and Late Season Snow
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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON
Click on the maps for that full report.
Just A Bit Outside Feb 19
Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.
February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast
click here or the map for more
January 19 Snow Report
January 11 Snow Report
January 6 Snow Report
Previous Snow
November 22 Snow Report
ALSO SEE
Recent Snow Reports
La Nina Advisory January 2025
MY WINTER OUTLOOK
FITF Gear on Sale
In Case You Missed This
The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF