March 5 Severe Storm Risk Today May Bring Damaging Winds Large Hail And Isolated Tornadoes

March 5 2025

Wednesday Morning Report

This will be a windy Wednesday as a strong cold front will bring a line of heavy rain that may contain severe storm cells. The risk, as identified by NOAA, is not a promise, but worth noting that the possibility exists AND that the timing will be during the afternoon.

For some areas, this may bring an added challenge during school dismissal. In this report I have the latest radar simulation timeline from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model.

The potential rainfall will range from 0.50” to 1.50” depending on the tracking of storm cells and perhaps an extended period of moderate to heavy rain that lingers after the squall line passes.

Storm Alerts:

Maybe issued by The National Weather Service for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding.

Watch: Potential For Development. The time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.

Warning: Identified storm cell. The time frame is usually 45 minutes and will include towns in the path.

Severe Storm Cells can produce:

• Damaging Winds OVER 58 mph
• Large Hail OVER 1-inch diameter
• Isolated Tornadoes

NOAA SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK

Slight Risk = Level 2 of 5. Widespread thunderstorms with a few cells that can turn severe. But NOT ALL.

Enhanced Risk = Level 3 of 5. This means a tornado outbreak is more likely.

NOAA Damaging Wind Risk

Winds OVER 58 mph are considered severe.

NOAA Large Hail Risk

Hail over 1” in diameter is considered severe.

NOAA Tornado Risk

While this looks low at 2%, we can consider it the chance that a portion of the shaded area may experience a twister.

Forecast Peak Wind Gusts

There may be higher gusts within severe storm cells.

Morning Surface Weather

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Storm Forecast Wednesday Morning to Thursday Afternoon

Radar Simulation:

HRRR Model 10 AM to 8 PM

Timeline Suggestion Snapshots

Please allow a buffer of around 1 hour from the time stamps.

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

High Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY March 5

Sunrise at 6:31 AM

Sunset at 6:04 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  31ºF

Record 10ºF in 1873

Normal High in Baltimore: 51ºF

Record 83ºF 1976

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

12.7”

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00”
• Since Jan 1 =  -2.56”
• We are DOWN -10.56” including last year

THURSDAY WEATHER

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Forecast Friday Afternoon to Sunday

The next disturbance does not look to get organized as the GFS model was suggesting. Once again, the ECMWF Model seems to have the upper hand.

We may get some rain showers and a mixed snowflake on Saturday… Then a warm up next week.

7 Day Forecast

After the severe storms pass, colder winds will flow back in this weekend.

Next week will get us back up to a stronger warm-up.

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March Madness: History of Extreme Weather and Late Season Snow

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

Just A Bit Outside Feb 19

Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.

February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

click here or the map for more

January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF