Tuesday Evening Update
As a vigorous storm charges across the US, the cold front is our focus across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. The energy associated with this system has dynamics that support a very strong line of downpours with embedded thunderstorms that may turn severe.
The temperatures are expected to barely reach near 60F in Central Maryland around Baltimore, which is not what you would normally expect to provide the energy to produce violent weather. The clash of air masses, and more importantly the wind sheer aloft is where the story will be sorted out.
Keep this in mind as we dive into this:
Watch: Potential For Development. The time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.
Warning: Identified storm cell. The time frame is usually 45 minutes and will include towns in the path.
These show the potential that any storm cell may produce these conditions. Not all will rise to these levels, but that line is worth watching closely.
This means any cell that can produce an element of severe weather with damaging wind, large hail, or a tornado.
Exceeding 58 mph.
1 inch diameter or larger.
One concerning map that I saw today was on the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR), which showed this sheer or spin with mid-aloft as we measure with Helicity. The units are meter²/second², and when above 250, there is potential for supercells.
This product may be exaggerated a little, but I still wanted to show you the energy at 1 PM on Wednesday:
In the report below. I have the timeline suggestion for this line of storms on radar.
The center of circulation is in Missouri. The clash of air masses has the line of severe storms pushing near New Orleans and the Deep South tonight, with moderate to heavy rain up through Chicago and the Great Lakes. The cold air has a narrow band of heavy snow on the back side.
The eruption of severe storms will weaken, but tomorrow, there will be a second burst in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast.
HRRR Model 7 AM 7 PM
These are suggestions. It is best to apply a one-hour buffer for this to verify a little earlier or later than shown.
The line will produce most of the activity in a broad sweep with winds over 50 mph.
Reminder that the individual cells embedded within the line may reach severe levels with winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, or a few isolated tornados.
Click here for the full report:
Click on the maps for that full report.
Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.
click here or the map for more
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