February 28 Mild End To The Month Then Wild And Stormy Start To March

February 28, 2025

Friday Morning Report

We had the third day in a row in the 60s AND that rain was underwhelming. Our drought woes continue, as we are nearly 2 inches below normal precipitation this year and almost 10 inches, including all of last year!

As we enter March, our temperatures will fluctuate between spring and winter levels every few days. This provides more energy for storms and the next focus will be a large severe storm outbreak next week.

NOAA has released a High Risk 5 days away. That is an indication that we need to be prepared for a very active day in the Mid-Atlantic next Wednesday.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 28

Sunrise at 6:40 AM

Sunset at 5:58 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 5ºF in 1934

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 71ºF 1903

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

12.7”

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00”
• Since Jan 1 =  -1.97”
• We are DOWN -9.97” including last year

Morning Surface Weather

Mild and quiet locally. Winds will pick up today and keep temps above average for this date.

The clipper-like storm pattern will pass to our north and arrive with colder air for us tomorrow morning.

Local Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast: 7 AM to  7 PM

Breezy today with winds stalling and shifting later in the day.

Snapshot at Noon

A thin band of rain will cross Central Maryland during lunchtime.

Afternoon Temperatures

SATURDAY WEATHER

Morning Temperatures

Radar Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

A line of spotty showers will arrive with the cold front, bringing a few hours of fresh snow to the high mountains.

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

Wind Snapshot 10 AM

High Temperatures (Not Afternoon)

This will be the peak on the thermometer before the cold winds arrive.

Wind Forecast

The direction will shift behind the rain and cold front. Gusts over 30 mph.

NEXT WEEK: SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK

NOAA: Tuesday Afternoon

A powerful storm is expected to explode with a high potential for severe storms. It is rare to have a high risk so many days away. The energy may provide widespread supercells with large hail and tornadoes.

Forecast Tuesday Afternoon (ECMWF Model)

Storm Forecast Tuesday To Wednesday

Snapshot Wednesday

The timing is subject to change, but we will watch mid-afternoon/evening for the line of storms.

NOAA Wednesday Afternoon

As often is the case, that line of storms will lose some energy when reaching the East Coast, but this 15% chance now, including Central Maryland, is high for five days away!

Jet Stream Forecast: Tuesday March 4 to  Sunday, March 9

The clash of air masses will ignite the severe storm outbreak. The surge of cold air will be followed by a winter-looking pattern.

Snapshot Sunday March 9

A deep trough will bring unseasonably chilly air to the Southeast US. It looks like deep winter and will have some March modification.

7 Day Forecast

Temperatures will swing between winter and spring every few days.

The focus will be a potential severe storm outbreak for us on Wednesday.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

Just A Bit Outside Feb 19

Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.

February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

click here or the map for more

January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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THANK YOU:

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The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF