Just A Bit Outside: Record Snow From February 19 Storm Targeted Virginia and North Carolina

Friday February 21, 2025

One week ago today, I jumped all in with the talk of a ‘Major Winter Storm’ for the East Coast. In retrospect, I wish I was more clear using the word POTENTIAL. As we can see, the result was VERY DIFFERENT than the 6-day forecast yesterday morning. I did show odds and stated that things would adjust more as we got closer.  But with the noise of social media, it is hard to compete with colorful maps that show high numbers for snow totals.

I encourage getting your information from multiple sources. I should not be the only one because I will not always get it right.  I use multiple computer models and show you the contrast often for the same reason. However, it is important to know who your source is and that the information is clear.  I am deliberate with my words and choices and see I can still improve.

The heavy snow missed my home area of the big cities in Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania.  The heavy snow zone shifted about 150 miles south! What it did do was clip Southern Maryland and left a big mark from Richmond to Norfolk and Eastern North Carolina.

Snow Total Mid-Atlantic

This report is to document the snowfall as well as a personal reminder to account for what happened from the mid range forecast that missed!

I wish you could have listened to the conversations I had all week with my 15-year-old son and the talks I had with former colleagues. I even had a phone call with my friend Meteorologist Tony Pann with my son to hear from another professional about long-range forecasting. He helped to emphasize the caution with snow forecasting and the fine line we draw between excitement and reality.

My son is very interested in weather forecasting and computer models.  He was watching videos on YouTube and even looking at models on his own. I gave him my account to view….

I NEVER showed a snow total map more than 3 days away.

He showed me other pages that posted maps with 20 to 30 inches of snow. I knew that would not happen!  It was a great lesson I shared with my son, who got excited when he saw it, then bummed when it gradually faded away.

In all honesty, I saw this storm on the models more than 8 days ahead of time. I waited until last Friday, and two things got me in the game:

1. My son made me a bet that if we got 1 foot of snow, he would go snowboarding with me.  I tried to teach him years ago and he decided to stop.
2. The European Model went Whole Hog on this storm for three days and then seemed to lock in on a jackpot solution. That prompted my first storm report and social media post dedicated to this event.

Just A Bit Outside (in my best Bob Eucker voice)

This was the European forecast map for Thursday Morning, compared to the actual result (on the right). The result on the right was a strong storm about 200 miles farther south.

My Biggest Mistake

Here is my Facebook post from last Friday. I do not need trolls to remind me; I own everything I say in public and hold myself accountable.

• I should have been MORE CLEAR that this was ‘Potential’.  I did state that:
• I wanted to make sure I had more evidence
• I will NEVER give a snow total more than 3 days away
• The maps I showed had Odds of 6” or more from the 50 members of the European Ensemble.  While it showed a 60% chance of getting that snow, IT ALSO MEANT a 40% chance it would not happen.

The numbers faded away after that, and by Monday, when I made my first forecast, it was clearer that this would not be our storm. I held out while more data came onshore, and the models were not perfect. This was not the Winter Hurricane Nor’easter, but it was still a big storm for some…. Southern Maryland/Delmarva, Southeast Virginia, and Eastern North Carolina.

What I did show:

While snow forecasting is a challenge even just a day away, I personally believe the more responsible map to show a hint of a major storm is this: Odds of snow from the Ensemble Product.  There are 50 different scenarios run within the ECMWF Model. Most people only see the chosen Deterministic plot, but that is not always correct.

Odds Of Snow Total (6 inches)

I chose an arbitrary 6” or more snow potential map. When it was over 50% for Baltimore 6 days away (last Friday), it was a signal to me that this is worth talking about.

I should have been very clear that also meant a 40% chance it would not happen.

Ensemble Low Location Plots

When the storm began to slip away, the 50 different scenarios showed a cluster of likely locations for it to shift farther off the coast.

Monday: It Was More Obvious This Was Going To Miss Us To The South

Let’s See The Real Results

Maryland Snow Plot

Maryland Snow List

• 6.8” Ridge (St. Mary’s County)
• 5.0” Clements (St. Mary’s County)
• Snow Hill = 5.5”
• Delmar = 5.3”
• Pocomoke city = 5.0”
• 4.4” Ocean City
• Salisbury = 4.0”
• Berlin = 4.0”
• Millsboro = 1.5”

My Original Call for Snowfall

Posted Monday

Ocean City MD Photos

and this

Snow Bullseye Total Map:

Southeast Virginia and North Carolina

Virginia

Record Snow Norfolk International Airport:

11 inches TOTAL: 8th All Time Daily Snow; 9th All Time Total Snow

• Greenbrier = 12.5”
• Ocean View = 11.25”
• Bay view = 10.5”
• Chincoteague = 6.5”
• Hallwood = 10.0”
• Williamsburg = 7.0”
• Newport News = 6.5”
• Gloucester = 4.0”

Northeast North Carolina

• Moyock – 11.0″
• Burnt Mills – 9.0″
• Nixonton – 6.5″
• Holiday Island – 6.0″
• Hertford – 5.5″
• Grandy – 5.0″
• Kitty Hawk – 4.0″
• Edenton 3.0″
• Kill Devil Hills – 3.0”

Take Away

This storm was a miss from far away, but in the 3 day lead up it was very close to verifying.

This is why I DO NOT give snow totals more than 3 days away.

I will track other storms within 1 week but will be very clear with Odds Vs a Forecast.

If you see a map for snow totals for one or two weeks away from any source, laugh at it!

Will there be more snow?

March is a wild month, and I think there still may be another one to track. If and when that happens, I promise I am here, to be honest with my thoughts AND clear with expectations while avoiding maps I think might be bogus. That is unless I clearly show that it is in fat bogus.

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SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

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January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF