February 18, 2025
Tuesday Morning Report
The worst of the latest wind storm is gone, but as the polar air mass arrives, we will definitely feel the chill today. This is part of the set up for the winter storm, which is going to take a southern track. I have held an open mind for a shift or impact farther north and my best opinion now is that NORTHERN FRINGE will be near or south of Annapolis, MD.
This includes the ‘potential’ for the storm to bring 3 to 6 inches of snow and 35 mph winds to these areas.
The storm ingredients are just not going to line up in time the way they looked a few days ago. The final upper-level piece that was expected to ‘capture’ the Coastal Low will actually be in position to push it south and away… However, the core of cold, unstable air will bring snow showers to Central Maryland on Thursday. I’m pretty sure there will be jokes about that.
The storm still has another day to try to get started… but light snow is breaking out in the Central US.
This Canadian Model shows the Coastal Low actually getting pushed farther away. There is also energy to keep snow showers in our forecast across Central Maryland and The Great Lakes.
The Upper-Level Low and Core of cold air winds through Maryland.
The river of energy will track through Virginia into Southern Maryland. This spin in the atmosphere is additional instability, and it is one reason snow showers are expected to carry across the mountains into metro areas.
Sunrise at 6:54 AM
Sunset at 5:47 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 3ºF in 1979
Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF
Record 75ºF 1976
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
12.7”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
It does look like the pieces will not fully come together in time. So, the storm will be strong but not as close and then flare up off the coast. The focus of the impact will be Southern Maryland and Southeast Virginia. However, the final piece will bring snow showers on Thursday.
Call this the worst or best-case scenario, depending on your perspective… This model shows the impact as far north as possible.
This is why I am just keeping Annapolis in the conversation. It is most likely a Southern Maryland and Southeast Virginia storm.
The upper-level energy will swing through with snow showers on Thursday.
This does seem to be the more likely result.
Polar Air Is Here
Wednesday to Thursday: Southern Track Storm
Weekend: Storm Pattern Breaks!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
