February 17 2025
Monday Morning Report
Happy Presidents Day and perhaps you have a day off to clean up up or recoup from the recent weather. We are still feeling the effects of the weekend storm. Due to the Strong Winds, A Wind Advisory has been extended until noon today in roughly half of our area. The Blizzard Warning continues or Western Maryland.
Sunday was wild and lived up to expectations:
You will surely notice the chill this morning, and the winds remain brisk and gusty. Colder air will continue to filter into the Eastern US over the next few days.
It is Presidents Week, and historically, half of our top 25 snowstorms fall this time of year. So when the computer guidance pointed us to a major storm, it was easy to believe.
That winter storm has had a trend on many models farther south to even miss much of Maryland and PA… My hesitation is that the full energy from the Pacific Ocean is not ingested into the modeling yet. It will today. So if there are any more blips in the projected development and track, they will show up today.
I need to emphasize and consider that weather events that did miss this winter have had one thing in common: They verified farther north than models forecasted. Yes, the prime events did hit south of Baltimore, but the misses were plots too far south. There is a bias to push cold air in too soon AND to push it too far south.
Here is what is weird AND NOT wish-casting…. The Euro and Canadian have it missing south, while the American Models GFS and NAM 12K keep it closer.
The current Euro looks similar to what the GFS did last week. So, is it leading the charge with something now? I also need to point out that a few weeks ago, the Euro had been too far south, and the GFS beat it. I made sure to acknowledge this in my storm report, so all bets are not off.
The model run this morning should include the needed energy. By mid-day, I will personally have a better idea if this will be a hit or miss and make my first call.
Blizzard Warning Expires At 3 PM
Garrett County, MD, Also Canaan Valley and Snowshoe, WV
Wind Advisory Expires At Noon
Northern Maryland, Delmarva, and Southern Pennsylvania
TODAY February 17
Sunrise at 6:55 AM
Sunset at 5:46 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 3ºF in 1958
Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF
Record 76ºF 1976
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
12.7”
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
The storm that is our Wind Machine is racing away and passing Northern Maine. The winds will ease but remain brisk as the edge of the Polar Air continues to spread into the US.
Fun Fact: The Winter Storm we are anticipating is not fully in the US yet…
Winds will peak around mid-day, then ease as we head towards evening.
Repeating my thoughts:
The major winter storm has had a trend on many models farther south to even miss much of Maryland and PA… My hesitation is that the full energy from the Pacific Ocean is not ingested into the modeling yet. That will happen today.
The weather events that did miss this winter have had one thing in common… they verified farther north than models forecasted. There is a bias to push cold air in too soon AND to push it too far south.
Here is what is weird AND NOT wish-casting…. The Euro and Canadian have it missing south, while the American Models GFS and NAM 12K keep it closer.
The current Euro looks similar to what the GFS did last week. So, is it leading the charge with something now? I also need to point out that a few weeks ago, the Euro had been too far south, and the GFS beat it. I made sure to acknowledge this in my storm report, so all bets are not off.
The model run this morning should include the needed energy. By mid-day, I will personally have a better idea if this will be a hit or miss and make my first call.
This will be a strong and cold Upper Level Low. This projection shows it passing through the Mid-Atlantic.
The energy, as seen by the ECMWF Model, does not line up as we thought. The result is NOT a major Nor’easter… This shows a strong storm passing through Virginia and North Carolina and then blowing up off the coast.
I am using the full model run from 00Z last night. Here are 4 plots for Thursday morning and we can see that the ECMWF and Canadian look like a miss.
Ironically, this is similar to how the GFS looked last week. Now…
The GFS and NAM 12 Km have it farther north with still an impact into Central Maryland.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
