February 16 2025
Sunday Morning Report
This current storm still has more to give. The burst of snow and sleet yesterday overachieved and was able to cover the warmer ground mid-day, which led to many accidents. This was actually forecast better on the modeling the day before on the NAM, and all models pulled back just before. I’ve noted this going forward.
Today will be a stormy day. Last night, I discussed the Low-Level Jet with winds over 100mph and 10,000 feet above the ground. This jet will fuel a line of heavy rain that will produce thunderstorms between 11 AM and 4 PM.
Strong winds will actually increase AFTER the storm passes but may help one last cluster of showers late afternoon.
Polar Air begins to arrive and will result in:
Blizzard Warning 1 PM Sun to 3 PM Mon
High Wind Warning 10 AM to 10 PM
Monday and Tuesday: Return of Polar Air
Wednesday Night to Thursday:
There has been a shift in the storm’s development over the last day. The upper-level energy alignment with the surface energy has translated to a faster and slightly farther south event. This will still become a major storm. The question is whether it will happen closer to us or farther off the coast.
IMPORTANT: The full energy is NOT ON THE GRID yet. That will enter US airspace and our weather balloon data tonight and tomorrow morning.
Sunrise at 6:57 AM
Sunset at 5:45 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 5ºF in 1905; 2015
Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF
Record 75ºF 1954
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
12.7”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -1.35
So we are down -9.35″, including last year!
The heavier rain will develop later this morning through early afternoon. Between 11 AM and 2 PM, a line of thunderstorms may develop across Central and Southern Maryland.
Then, one more cluster of heavy rain late afternoon AND snow develops in the high mountains where a Blizzard Warning kicks in for Garrett County, MD. This also includes ski areas of Canaan Valley and Snowshoe, WV.
Metro Baltimore can expect this line any time between 11 Am and 1 PM. Heavier rain and a better chance for thunder will be south.
Metro Baltimore can expect this line any time between 11 Am and 1 PM. Heavier rain and a better chance for thunder will be south.
Metro Baltimore can expect this line any time between 11 Am and 1 PM. Heavier rain and a better chance for thunder will be south.
A brief surge of temps close to 60F just before the rush of strong winds and colder air.
These may peak between 2 PM and 8 PM.
A blizzard warning is for the winds to exceed 35 mph with the heavy snow.
The Kuchera Technique was used to account for temps in the teens and a higher snow ratio.
McHenry = 8.8”
The higher elevations closer to 4,000 Ft may get close to 2 Ft of snow.
The influence of the Polar Vortex will send deep arctic air into the US, Well Below Zero across the Northern Plains.
The arrival into our region may be a little later… This may play a role in the next storm next week.
There was a shift in the storm development over the last day. The upper-level energy alignment with the surface energy has translated to a faster and slightly farther south event. This will still become a major storm. The question is if it will happen closer to us or farther off the coast.
I will repeat: The full energy is NOT ON THE GRID yet. That will enter US airspace and our weather balloon data tonight and tomorrow morning.
Snow will arrive from the South, and light snow may break out into Central Maryland to begin the storm. This is similar to prior model runs.
Low Pressure moves off the North Carolina coast and a lock of cold and snow across much of Maryland.
This has shifted a little farther south and east from the plots in the last two days.
(The specifics are STILL subject to some change).
Canadian and American GFS Models have also shifted the snow even farther south. I do not buy into abrupt changes until I see consecutive model runs consistently showing them. I expect there will be more fluctuation until the full data is available on Monday morning.
Based on the 50-member Ensemble of the European Model:
Here are the greatest odds of where the storm will be tracking. There is still a wide range of possibilities.
Based on the 50-member Ensemble of the European Model:
Here are the odds of getting 6 inches of snow or more.
This has shifted south, AND I expected more fluctuation until full data is available Monday morning.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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