February 15, 2025
Saturday Morning Report
There is so much going on; it may be overwhelming, but I touch on it all here.
This morning, light snow is trying to build in and may spread to metro areas by noon. Roads are expected to stay wet, and a transition to mix and rain, plus fog, later in the day.
A Winter Weather Advisory includes Maryland from Frederick County westward and parts of Southern Pennsylvania. Any road impact will be in higher elevations and shaded spots.
The mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will turn to rain as warmer air arrives Saturday night and Sunday.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
Maryland Mountains west of Frederick and Southern Pennsylvania.
This has been EXPANDED to include York and Lancaster Counties.
The strongest Winds will be mid-afternoon to evening, with gusts up to 60 mph.
Saturday Afternoon to Monday Morning
Monday and Tuesday: Return of Polar Air
Wednesday to Thursday: The next winter storm has more support to be a major impact across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Heavy snow and strong winds will peak on Thursday.
Sunrise at 6:58 AM
Sunset at 5:44 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 6F in 1899, 1943, 2015
Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 77ºF 1949
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
12.7”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -1.67
So we are down -9.67″, including last year!
A very complex storm has brought a mix of snow up the Ohio Valley and will be heading our way mid-day.
Warmer air and heavy rain will try to push in from the south.
In the Northern Plains, the leading edge of Polar Air is poised to move in following the storm.
Light snow this morning… but metro area roads should stay wet. The impact will be in the Advisory areas, especially in higher elevations and shaded areas.
Gradually, a mix over to rain will occur during the day… then in the evening in the Advisory area.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
This is when the winds will pick up, AND the heavy snow will develop in the mountains.
The influence of the Polar Vortex will send deep arctic air into the US, Well Below Zero across the Northern Plains.
The arrival into our region may be a little later… This may play a role in the next storm next week.
The setup with polar air in place and the upper-level energy may line up just right to produce a True Nor’easter that peaks on Thursday. Pressure levels will drop fast and blizzard conditions are possible with high winds and heavy snow.
To see a deep dive into how this may form and why it is a big deal, click here for my report.
Snow may begin late Wednesday, and then the focus will be on Thursday!
Low Pressure moves off the North Carolina coast and a lock of cold and snow across much of Maryland.
The specifics are subject to some change.
The Canadian thrives with polar air and has been similar to the European Model. This is a little farther inland, with the mix line closer to the big cities. Still, it is a negligible factor this far away.
This model has been the least consistent and bouncing around plots. It has tended to be faster, weaker, and farther south with the storm track.
Storm Track moves east off the coast with a 978 mb Low. That would be equal to a Category 2 Hurricane and may produce blizzard conditions.
Heavy snow will taper to snow showers overnight.
Based on the 50-member Ensemble of the European Model:
Here are the odds of getting 6 inches of snow or more. This has held firm since yesterday… showing consistency in the model.
Click on the maps for that full report.
click here or the map for more
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
