February 10, 2025
Monday Morning Report
This next storm looks similar to the one we had on January 6. The track will favor heavier snow south of Baltimore and Washington, with less snow to the north. There is still some wiggle room with the banding of snow, and I have adjusted my maps accordingly.
A Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to cover the northern counties in Maryland, while an upgraded Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the heavy snow zone in South Central Virginia.
I do expect more alerts likely to be A Winter Weather Advisory to include Southern Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service will post their updates during the day today. I can’t do that for them.
The timing brings in the snow into central Maryland during Tuesday afternoon, with the main impact overnight and ending Wednesday morning, the the next system will bring freezing rain, turning to rain with a warmer track Wednesday night and ending Thursday morning.
Another warm storm with rain this weekend will follow, but the first impact of the next Polar Vortex push will be early next week.
The next focus is on the Snowstorm from Tuesday to Wednesday. Yes, it looks like moderate to heavy snow is expected across the Mid-Atlantic and, once again, may favor areas south of Baltimore. I have the forecast including My First Call For Snowfall and two computer models to compare and contrast.
Sunrise at 7:04 AM
Sunset at 5:38 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -7F in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 66ºF 1959; 1960; 2023
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
We get a quiet day and the storm on the way has not formed yet. It will begin to take shape by the end of today.
Snow will arrive in the afternoon
Temps will cool as the snow arrives.
This is the model solution I believe is best at this time. It brings in moderate to heavy snow Tuesday afternoon and night. Heavier snow is plotted near and south of Baltimore so less will fall north.
The first wave will end with snow on Wednesday morning. Then freezing rain and rain will arrive Wednesday night, transitioning to all rain Thursday.
This is subject to refining as we get closer.
Moderate to Heavy Snow will be developing all afternoon across Virginia into Central and Southern Maryland.
Lighter snow will begin across PA a few hours later…
Moderate to Heavy Snow will track across Central and Southern Maryland. Steady snow will impact Southern PA as well…
The heavy snow will be moving away around sunrise.
NOTE:
Phase 1 will end as snow on Wednesday Morning.
I shaved off the north end and bumped up the heavy snow zone. There is still wiggle room, and I expect one more final adjustment before the first flakes.
Note: I do not trust the Canadian or other global models in this pattern or time frame.
The HRRR Model (18 hours) and NAM 3 Km (60 hours) Models are short-range products. They do not go out far enough to include this entire event time window.
This looks like a warmer track with rain, followed by the first influence from the Polar Vortex, arriving with arctic air on Monday.
Focus on the snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Then Freezing Rain to Rain Thursday…
More will be in the pipeline as we watch the Polar Vortex’s influence in the week following this time window.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
