Sunday Afternoon Update
This week will be our prime time of winter. The majority of years we get a winter storm close to Presidents Week. This time, we have two storms back to back, and they will behave differently. The first will bring snow that looks to be heavier south of Baltimore, like the storm we had on January 6. The second storm will follow a warmer track with a change to freezing rain and ending with snow.
Our biggest impact will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Before we get into this, I need to emphasize two things:
1: Compare Models are guidance. I pick among many which to show based on which I think I performing best. They are subject to change and shift in both the timing and track. So, with two days away, I leave a little wiggle room.
2: My First Call For Snowfall is my highest confidence on the lower end. It may not match the models and, in some cases, can be much lower. This is intentional as I leave room to go up as we get closer. Computer models on the other hand, more often will pull back down from higher numbers
Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday Afternoon
Potential for a range of 4 to 6 inches of snow (or higher further south).
This includes Baltimore, Washington, and just east of Philadelphia: All areas South and East of I-95. This is the expected highest-impact zone
Inland areas to the north along the MD/PA line are likely to get a Winter Weather Advisory as we get closer.
Two Storms…. The first one will dump snow in the Mid-Atlantic and move more zonally, West to East. This is due to being blocked by strong High Pressure in New England, the source of the cold air.
The second storm in the Central US will ride the jet stream as it lifts North. That is why we expect this storm to be warmer and bring us rain.
Here, we can see the lifting track to our North.
The surface reflection of that lifting jet steam is the shift from snow (blue) with the first storm to freezing rain (pink) and rain (green) with the second storm.
Very similar solutions. I am leaning on the European Model with these differences:
Later start Tuesday, but longer duration snow into Wednesday.
The second event may bring more Freezing Rain, but will end with rain overnight into Thursday Morning.
The take away here is that the heavier snow is set up like January 6 to fall more south of Baltimore across South Central Virginia to Southern Maryland.
There is wiggle room! These models have a tendency to overplay snow totals AND can bump back north just before an event.
My First Call accounts for that. That is why I started lower with totals and left room to increase. Also, I did account for the expansion of a little more snow farther north near the PA line.
I am hedging my initial call that this tracks a little farther north. That keeps Southern PA in play for slightly more than the models suggest.
Looking Ahead: Polar Vortex Forecast
The split and then the surge of cold air into the United States.
Focus on the snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Then Freezing Rain to Rain Thursday…
More will be in the pipeline as we watch the Polar Vortex’s influence in the week following this time window.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
