February 9, 2025
Sunday Morning Report
Yesterday, I went online and sent out emails acknowledging the weather system was a dud and that it was still going to be icy for the evening. It was an odd day when my forecast was both wrong and right. I made the mistake of latching on to the early precipitation and expecting the entire event to arrive early for all of us. Instead, the energy split and delayed the formation, which finally happened in the evening.
While the daytime brought limited and spotty precipitation, the buildup between 4 PM and 8 PM led to numerous accidents in central Maryland and southern PA. It was the perfect set-up, with the freezing rain and sleet developing just as the sun was going down. I-70 through Carroll County is where I heard the scanners going bonkers. The ice did continue across Baltimore, Harford, Cecil Counties, and parts of Delmarva through southern PA.
This morning, most have had a chance to thaw. Temps are above freezing, and sun and gusty winds will help dry the roads out for plans to Church and Super Bowl parties this evening.
The next focus will be on the Snowstorm Tuesday to Wednesday. Yes, it looks like a moderate to heavy snow is expected across the Mid-Atlantic and once again may favor areas south of Baltimore. I have the forecast including My First Call For Snowfall and two computer models to compare and contrast.
Note: Today is the Anniversary of our Second Blizzard in the 5 Day Snowmageddon of 2010 (brought 50 inches of snow to Baltimore)
Sunrise at 7:06 AM
Sunset at 5:36 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -1ºF in 1967
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 72ºF 2017
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -1.82
So we are down -9.82″, including last year!
That storm did bring 3 to 5 inches of snow to our Northeast including New York and Boston. It is moving away, and we will have gusty, dry winds today.
Once again mostly sunny and quiet…
This is the model solution I believe is best at this time. It brings in moderate to heavy snow Tuesday afternoon and night. Heavier snow is plotted near and south of Baltimore, so less will fall north.
The first wave will end with snow on Wednesday morning. Then freezing rain and rain will arrive Wednesday night, transitioning to all rain Thursday.
This is subject to refining as we get closer.
The GFS is similar… But colder. It did have some wins this winter, but it is still biased to be too cold. As far as snow timing and totals, I will focus more on the HRRR model which became a player with 18 hours of forecast time (so the day before and during the event). This model has outperformed the NAM 3 Km model with our two recent weekend weather flops.
Moderate to Heavy Snow will be developing all afternoon across Virginia into Central and Southern Maryland.
Lighter snow will begin across PA a few hours later…
Moderate to Heavy Snow will track across Central and Southern Maryland. Steady snow will impact Southern PA as well…
NOTE:
Phase 1 will end as snow on Wednesday Morning.
Snow will be ending during the morning.
I am going LESS than the two main global model guidance plots.
OFTEN there is shift to the north as we get closer… but these southern areas did win with the early Jan storm….
ALSO, these models overplay snow totals and will trend back down.
My call is based on a few factors and shows my confidence in the low end. There is potential to go higher, which is why I put the + in there.
Note: I do not trust the Canadian or other global models in this pattern or time frame.
The HRRR (18 hours) and NAM 3 Km (60 hours) Models are short-range products. They do not go out far enough to include this entire event time window.
Phase 2 will begin Wednesday Night with Freezing Rain and Rain, trending warmer.
Polar Vortex Forecast Feb 13 to Feb 18.
The forecast split, and then a surge of very cold air will push into the US in the week that follows.
The split and then the surge of cold air into the United States.
Focus on the snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Then Freezing Rain to Rain Thursday…
More will be in the pipeline as we watch the Polar Vortex’s influence in the week following this time window.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
