Very Active Winter Storm Pattern Continues With Ice Saturday And Snow Next Tuesday

Thursday Night Update February 6 2025

February is known for the bulk of winter weather we see in our region. We are about to get a few winter storms starting with ice this weekend and snow early next week.

Locally we fondly refer to Presidents Week for nearly half of our top 25 snowstorms. As history would have it, today is part of the Anniversary of our Double Blizzards. In 2010, Baltimore had one on Feb 5-6, then again on Feb 9-10. Both were officially blizzards that brought a total of 50 inches of snow in the snowiest winter on record.

What we have in front of us is not the same, because we are not looking at all snow. We do have multiple storm systems that will arrive every two to three days. Much like the ice event that just passed through, the track may look like Atmospheric Memory is stuck on repeat.

I am only going out one week here, but there is more in the pipeline. The short range events I have higher confidence. While the pattern will keep sending impulses our way, farther out in time the track and impact get more challenging to pin down.

Also: I will show the ice forecast for our first event on Saturday. The second event will bring more snow, but I do not trust the wide range of model forecasts. I never show a hint of snow totals until we are within 72 hours from that event.

Basically, this is going to be rapid fire and changing, so each update will get a little more specific as we get closer to each event.

Jet Stream Set Up

The Northern and Southern branches of the jet stream are locked in a position to help develop new Low Pressure systems in the Mississippi River Valley that track across the Mid Atlantic… like this:

Animation 700mb Wind: Saturday Morning to Thursday Morning

This is the air flow at around 10,000 Ft elevation. I chose this because it does help demonstrate  the activity on the way.

ECMWF Model Saturday Through Wednesday

The next two winter weather systems… and there are more to follow afterwards.

Computer Model Comparison Highlights

Saturday Afternoon

The GFS Model is more aggressive, with earlier arrival and sleet.  The ECWMF Model is slower and starts with light snow.

Saturday Evening

Both models bring in moderate freezing rain all evening and overnight. This will end Sunday morning.

Tuesday Afternoon

Both models bring in accumulating snow during the day and lasting into the night.

Storm Simulation: ECMWF Model 

Saturday Afternoon to Sunday Morning

This may start with light snow or sleet in the afternoon.

Freezing rain is most likely with moderate icing overnight.

Snapshots

7 PM Sat to 1 AM Sun

Moderate to Heavy Icing Near and North of Baltimore.

This may play out in a very similar way to what we just had Thursday morning.

Ending Sunday Morning

Any left over icing will be ending… With plenty of day hours to clear roads. Super Bowl party plans should not have a weather impact.

Winter Precipitation POTENTIAL Forecasts

I’m comparing the GFS and ECMWF Models again like the last event.

GFS Sleet

This is the only one showing significant sleet.

GFS Freezing Rain

ECMWF Freezing Rain

Tuesday Snow

Forecast Animation 10 AM Tue to 7 AM Wed

This looks like a daytime arrival with a snow burst. If this holds, it will drag in warmer air to turn to freezing rain overnight…

Snapshots

Tuesday Afternoon  1 PM to 7 PM Summary

This snow burst would bring accumulation and impact! I will NOT show snow total potential because there is a wide range with models now and I do not think they have a good handle yet.

Overnight 7 PM Tue to 1 AM Wed Summary

Considering the pattern we are in, the chance to turn to freezing rain with rain in the warmer areas near and south of Baltimore.

Take Away

• We are in a busy time of year and set up for multiple storms.
• The near term looks like a repeat with Freezing rain Saturday
• The next storm on Tuesday will be little colder and have a burst of snow, at least to start.
• It is TOO EARLY to talk about accumulation.
• A few more storms will follow at leas through next weekend.
• There is high confidence in the active pattern, but low confidence in the track. So calling rain, ice, or snow in the later events is just purely guessing work. I prefer to keep the idea of more storms for now, then narrow the expectations when we get with in 5 days.  That is much better than bouncing back and forth, like the models will be doing farther out in time.

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