February 5, 2025
Wednesday Report
There is so much to talk about today. As colder air works back in, a thin band of light snow has developed and coated the ground in Northeastern Maryland. I showed this the last two days but the models struggled with it.
The main focus will be on the developing sleet and freezing rain tonight. The bulk will fall after midnight, with moderate to heavy ice at daybreak. The Winter Weather Advisory in place has been extended to 10 AM in Central Maryland. Also, Dorchester County on the Eastern Shore has been added.
This weekend will bring another icy mix late Saturday, and then an active pattern with colder air will try to produce snow next week.
First, We have a drought and need the moisture in any way it will arrive.
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -1.90
So we are down -9.90″, including last year!
Sunrise at 7:09 AM
Sunset at 5:33 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record -1ºF in 1886; 1996
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 73ºF 1991
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
This narrow band of snow may drop a coating into parts of Harford and Cecil County in Maryland.
A nowcasting technique is to compare and see which model handles the current setup best.
The high-resolution NAM missed this snow, but the GFS actually showed it best. That is why I continue to rely on that model in this situation.
The Arctic air has arrived in New England and is sending the cold air our way.
A thin band of snow has formed over Southern Pennsylvania to Northeastern Maryland.
The Winter Weather Advisory has been:
GFS Model has handled this best so far…
Daybreak: The thaw will be slow. Models often have a tough time moving the warm air in. The thickness of ice will also determine how long it takes to melt after temperatures warm.
The thaw will expand late morning to early afternoon for the colder inland areas.
There may be heavy sleet with up to 1 inch BEFORE the freezing rain develops.
The wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain depends on the thickness of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere. An inversion is a layer of warm air sandwiched between colder clouds and colder ground. Snow may form in the clouds, fall and melt, then have a chance to freeze again on the way down.
Sleet = Melted snow refreezes to ice pellets on the way down.
Freezing Rain = Melted snow can not refreeze in time, but will on contact with the ground. It falls like rain, then ices on the surface of anything it touches.
Both models show another round of Wintry Mix To Freezing Rain on Saturday, ending with rain on Sunday morning.
Next week will try to work on colder air and bring us snow.
A break from the ice later Thursday and Friday.
Atmospheric Memory: The storm pattern will try to repeat again this weekend with more freezing rain Saturday evening.
The pattern remains active with more wintry weather next week
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
