February 1 Weather Cooler Weekend Then Warm And Icy Mix And Polar Vortex Makes A Move Mid Month

February 1 2025

Saturday Morning Report

The rain event yesterday underperformed. The net result of rain at Baltimore’s BWI was 0.48”. It was welcome, but the water table is still very low, including the drought from last year.

January (for our region) did produce more snow than average, but lower rainfall total. Here are the monthly numbers:

• Temperature:  30.3F = -4.0F compared to average
• Snow: 8.9” = +2.4” compared to average
• Precipitation Total: 1.59” = -1.49” compared to average

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00, since Jan 1 =  -1.49
• So we are down -9.49 including last year!

Tomorrow is Groundhog Day. The scouting report on Phil shows that he predicts a longer winter 78% of the time and is wrong more than 50% of the time… But he did call for early spring the last two years. I’ve been told that he is always right; it has been a translation problem with his handlers that has led to all the errors.

Recently, I showed the NOAA Warm Temperature Outlook AND La Niña Advisory. In this report, a look at the Polar Vortex forecast to SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH mid month. I stand by my focus that La Niña is not going to dominate our weather pattern, even if it looks like it this week. Winter is going to make a return during this month.

Morning Surface Weather

The latest storm is moving away from the coast. The new air mass is cooler, and the gusty winds are building as it moves in.

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

Afternoon Snapshot

Stronger winds will gust 20 to 30 mph and temps will get colder..

Afternoon  Temperatures

The high temp may be closer to noon, and then it’ll get cooler.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 1st

Sunrise at 7:13 AM

Sunset at 5:28 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 7ºF in 1965

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 75ºF 2002

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

8.9”

SUNDAY WEATHER

This is Groundhog Day, and it is expected to be cloudy in Western PA. Based on tradition, that should mean that Phil calls for an early spring…

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Looking Ahead

While there will be a warm-up early in the work week, model support for a wintry, icy mix midweek with the next storm system is there. Whether it will have an impact will depend on the timing of the day, and there is also no full agreement on this.

Model Comparison

GFS Forecast Wednesday Morning to Friday Morning

Snapshots

Wednesday Afternoon

Thursday Morning

Thursday Afternoon

Polar Vortex

In the last two days, I showed the NOAA warm outlook AND La Niña Advisory. But like the last month, I do not think La Niña is strong enough to impact us fully. The Polar Vortex is projected to try and repeat influence mid-month…

Currently, a strong and high circulation is locking the cold air up to the north. This is forecast to split into two pieces or sister vortices over the next two weeks. The stronger, larger one will drop south into Canada and affect the Eastern US by mid-month…

Stratosphere: These maps at the 10 mb level are roughly 50,000 Ft in altitude.

Snapshot Today

Forecast Feb 1 to Feb 15

Snapshot Feb 8 (1 Week)

Snapshot Feb 15 (2 Weeks)

7 Day Forecast

Variable weather from a chilly weekend to a big warm-up Monday and Tuesday. I am holding the chance for some ice to start the mid-week storm. Just watching with interest, but no promise of impact…

The Polar Vortex Impact… would begin next weekend AFTER this forecast period.

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La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

FITF Gear on Sale

In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF