January 31, 2025
Friday Morning Report
The storm today will bring moderate to heavy rain. A few showers passed through overnight. The steady rain will develop during the morning and be heavy at times mid-day through the afternoon.
This system will shift the focus of rain near and north of Baltimore during the afternoon, giving southern areas of Maryland a break with dry hours and warm temperatures. Then, the rain will pivot southward tonight.
This weekend will bring cooler winds tomorrow and seasonal weather for Sunday, Groundhog Day. The scouting report on Phil is that he predicts longer winters 78% of the time and is wrong more than 50% of the time… But he did call for early spring the last two years. I’ve been told that he is always right; it has been a translation problem with his handlers that has led to all the errors.
Next week may look like La Niña has taken hold with an early spring, but longer-range outlooks bring the colder winter weather back for the second week of the month.
Low Pressure moving through the Ohio Valley is a warm track for us. There is plenty of moisture to swing through during the day today.
There is not much cold air in sight. However, a little is hanging on with snow and ice in the Poconos of Northeast PA. That will change to rain.
Behind this storm, cooler air will bring us back to near normal temps this weekend.
Moderate to heavy rain across most of the region.
Moderate to heavy rain will focus near and North of Baltimore into Southern Pennsylvania. Southern Maryland will get some dry hours AND warmer temperatures.
Under the rainfall, temperatures will range from the mid-40s to lower 50s. In the dry region across Southern Maryland and Southeast PA, temperatures will jump to the upper 50s and 60s.
That band of rain will swing through Baltimore on the way southward.
Rain will be shifting south of Baltimore.
In the case of the three models I show here, we will still average between 0.50 and 1.00 inches for most areas. The chance for higher rain will be up to 2 inches in the high mountains of West Virginia.
I tend to lean on the model in the middle.
Sunrise at 7:14 AM
Sunset at 5:27 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record 4ºF in 1965; 1966
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 69ºF 1914; 1916; 1947
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
Breezy and Cooling Back To Seasonal Levels
The NOAA Outlook for early February does focus on a very warm Eastern US. I see a kink in the ridge and the recently advertised La Niña Advisory. The cold air will try to move in next weekend, and I see a distinct return to winter during the second week of February.
Well Above Average
Warm, but the colder will be expanding across the Northern and Central US.
It is important to note that this is the average for that period. It does not represent how it will start or end.
I believe it is safe to say it will start warm but end much cooler than suggested above.
The warm ridge will get knocked down in the second week of the month.
My Verdict:
Winter is NOT DONE! There is more to the story, but I have shared a lot of info here. I do believe the Polar Vortex has tightened but will wobble and drop again. We saw something similar in 2014 when the arctic blast in January was matched in early March. This may not be a repeat, but the multiple variables that lined up recently may try to do so again for the second half of February and early March. This may be enough to overtake the weak La Niña.
This weekend, we’ll be back in the seasonal lower to mid-40s. Next week, there will be a few very warm days. This may look like early spring, but it is part of the lifted jet stream and a tease. The next push of colder air may arrive as soon as next weekend.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
