Thursday January 30 2025
La Niña conditions have been observed and documented by NOAA. This was issued earlier in the month, but we have been busy with polar air and record snowstorms… So I did not have a chance to share until now. In fact, the storm track most of this month does NOT fit with a typical La Nina.
There is a 59% chance this persists February through April. It is a weak event that started to show in December. As I wrote in my Winter outlook last fall, it would not be a typical La Niña winter and it has not. The question is if it will demonstrate going forward or just be a side conversation.
Nov 6 2024 to Jan 22 2025
Here are the actual temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
This is the comparison to average, which helps illustrate where areas are cooler than ‘normal’.
La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).
La Niña conditions emerged in December 2024 and were reflected in below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Here are the cross sections of four main regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We can see the dominant cooling, primarily in regions 3 and 4 since December. This is the La Niña!
The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak La Niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler SST anomalies with La Niña persisting through February-April 2025. The forecast team favors the NMME guidance, predicting weak La Niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to ENSO-neutral. Weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance.
In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance as shown in this chart)
The Winter Storm Track with a La Niña trends to favor the Northern US and Great Lakes. This can bring frequent snow events with the cold air to our north and IF the track does cut up the Ohio Valley, that would make the bulk of the Mid Atlantic ‘warmer’.
Typical La Niña’s with this pattern, would bring extra precipitation to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, but from the Mid Atlantic through the Southeast US the trend ends up drier.
We have a drought! So this would not be beneficial to our low water table.
But, it is important to note that a WEAK La Niña does not always produce these patterns. That can in the short term and I will explore that below.
Warmer than normal 65% of the La Niña Winters.
Cooler than normal 35% of La Niña Winters.
This is total precipitation for rain and snow.
Overall there is an even split. But this chart can be confusing. A Moderate La Niña has had 4 of 6 times been below average, but the chart has the largest total. This is because when there is an above average pattern, it can be WAY ABOVE AVERAGE to offset the total comparison.
If you have Faith in the Flakes, this might not be what you want to see. But there is a silver lining. While most years show below-normal snow, there have been some big exceptions.
If you base the winter just on La Niña and want more snow, then you would want a Moderate La Niña for more snow.
We have had big snowstorms within a mild winter.
There are many other factors that could play a larger role locally.
The NOAA outlook does bring the odds of Neutral Conditions by March or April. Let’s hope so.
In this display of severe weather: La Nina Years tend to produce very active storm tracks with above average hailstorms and tornadoes.
Well Above Average
Warm, but the colder will be expanding across the Northern and Central US.
It is important to note that I the the average for that period. It does not represent how it will start or end.
I believe it is safe to say it will start warm, but end much cooler than suggested above.
The warm ridge will get knocked down in the second week of the month.
My Verdict:
Winter is NOT DONE! There is more to the story, but I have shared a lot of info here. I do believe the Polar Vortex has tightened, but will wobble and drop again. We saw something similar in 2014 when the arctic blast in January was matched in early March. This may not be a repeat, but the multiple variables that lined up recently may try to do so again for the second half of February and early March. This may be enough to overtake the weak La Niña.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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