January 27, 2025
Monday Morning Report
After reaching the upper 40s yesterday, temps have dropped into a deep freeze again this morning. But the weather ahead is more common for our region.
What a difference one week can make. Last week, we were under the grip of the polar air mass with cold weather advisories. After spending most of the week below freezing, lots of waterways have frozen over. Now, we watch the thaw, and it is important to note that the ice will break up and slow southward.
The arctic air is gone, but the leftover effects of ice still linger. It is worth considering that the ice across the Northern Chesapeake Bay AND Susquehanna River will break up and flow southward during the week.
This was sunrise on Sunday in Edgemere, MD.
This week will start seasonably cool and then switch to a mild airflow as the storm track shifts. This will bring us rain on Friday. We know there will be a storm, but how it behaves is still not locked. One model moves it out on Saturday, while another delays the arrival and allows the cold air to catch up, ending with a wintry mix on Saturday.
Sunrise at 7:17 AM
Sunset at 5:22 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record 3ºF in 1987
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 72ºF 1944; 1974
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
A line of snow showers will drop southward.
Here, we see that thin line of snow showers and flurries into southern PA. The forecast plot fades this snow… but flurries may still reach parts of Central Maryland with this boundary. No stickage is expected.
We will be on the edge of a cool pocket of air… this will keep us breezy and more clouds north/west of Baltimore as Lake Effect Snow passes through our northern neighboring states.
This is the ECMWF Solution: I switched to this due to reliability in more common weather patterns. It brings in rain on Friday, then ends it by Saturday. Below is the GFS, which is slower and colder.
Moderate to heavy rain builds in across the region.
This is a slower solution that holds the rain off until later in the day/night.
This slower solution allows the colder air to catch up and drop the snow southward from central Pennsylvania… It ends with a few hours of a wintry mix in Central Maryland.
The surge of milder temps for the Eastern US while the cold air begins to embrace the Northwest.
The week will start on the edge of a cold air mass to the north and end with another one following a storm. In between, we warm midweek, and then our next storm starts with rain on Friday. The end on Saturday is uncertain, with a mix or not. It’s just something to keep an eye on.
Click on the maps for that full report.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
