Sunday January 19 2025
Afternoon Update
So far, the storm has behaved as expected, with one exception… Some places around the cities and I-95 have a wintry mix or just cold rain. The inland areas have had a few hours of snow, but temps have remained near or just above freezing. That is about to change. There have been a few hours of wasted flakes, but I still think the afternoon snow burst is about to develop.
I have been saying since yesterday that the peak time would be 2 PM to 6 PM and I still believe that to be on target as seen here:
This setup does seem to match better with the Canadian Model and the short-range HRRR model rain line. But the storm is still trying to organize and develop. This process has been a little slower, but the expectation is that it will pull east and drag in the colder air with heavier precipitation this afternoon.
One signal is that the Canadian Model is very close to the GFS Model showing that expansion of snow this afternoon. If you recall from all the maps I showed this week, the Canadian Model was the warmest… so now that it is in line with the others, there is better confidence for metro areas getting back to the snow.
The surface storm looks ragged, but it is still organizing and developing. This is just taking a couple of extra hours.
The freezing line has reached Hagerstown and York in PA. It is about to pass through Westminster and on the move to the east. Most of the region east of the mountains has been above freezing.
In the Winter Storm Warning Zone, there they have had snow for hours… It is about to start the process of sticking and that will expand eastward.
The Polar Air is about to pounce in as well.
Here are the two main short-range high-resolution models. The HRRR Model is the warmer one and shows the mix of sleet and snow starting for the cities by 2 PM… Ending after 6 PM.
This is a more robust solution with snow setting up south of I-95 by 2 PM and heavier snow lasting an extra hour or two.
This shows the Freezing Line moving through I-95 and starting to pass through the metro areas of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.
This is from this morning, after snow had already fallen in the mountains, so their totals will appear lower to only include additional snow.
The lowest.
They did drop to the lower end of the expected zone.
I have not changed this since yesterday. I still think we will verify in my zones, even if in the middle or lower end.
The Jet Stream will be dominated by the push of Polar Air. The actual Polar Vortex will be in Canada but dislodged to influence the ENTIRE Eastern US.
This may produce snow for the Gulf Coast, and we need to watch something try to slide along the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast Coast.
The GFS has done the best with this Sunday storm, so I wanted to show it for the end of the week. This is NOT a promise, and I expect it to change as we get closer. It’s just something to watch.
Dangerously cold air will follow Monday.
We will remain BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK!
Wind Chills will be lower.
Flurries may arrive on Tuesday, and some additional cloud cover may mitigate how cold we can get on Wednesday morning. This looks less intense than I have shown in prior days, but it is still extreme.
I have low confidence in the late-week snow chances, but I need to keep this a possibility.
Click on the maps for that full report.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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